Analysis: American League Season Predictions

Photo by Dan Gold

Check out our National League predictions here

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The 2020 season brings with it many storylines for American League teams. How will the Astros respond after a World Series loss and scandal-filled offseason? Can the Yankees stay healthy and avenge last year’s loss in the ALCS? Will the Twins break their own home run record? Do sleeper teams like the A’s or Rays have what it takes to pull off some playoff upsets? All of these questions will be answered in due time (about 90 days in fact), but for now, here’s how I see things playing out:

Photo by Vic Cherubini

AL West

Much like the NL West, the drama in this division isn’t so much at the top of the division than it is right behind it. The A’s putting yet another really good team on the field this year, a big move from the Angels may have been just what they need to get into Wild Card contention, and the Rangers have quietly assembled one of the best rotations in baseball. So while the Astros are far and away the clear favorites here, there is still quite a lot happening in this division.

1. Astros

Much like how the Dodgers have been trampling over everyone in the NL West, the Astros have been head and shoulders above their AL West counterparts for the last few seasons. And despite all of the controversy and fallout from their cheating scandal, that still remains the case. All of the key players have returned from last year’s squad that made it to the World Series, and they are one of the two favorites to win the American League pennant this year. Even with the randomness of a 60-game season, it is very hard to imagine that they do not win the division

2. Athletics

Coming off of two straight losses in the AL Wild Card game, the A’s look primed to try and avenge their fate once again. Matt Chapman is as good as ever, and key contributors Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Marcus Semien, and Ramon Laureano are all returning to contribute to a powerful offense and defense. Much like the last two years, I highly doubt that they will be able to eclipse the Astros, but I think they shouldn’t have any trouble finding a spot back in the Wild Card game.

3. Angels

The World’s Greatest Baseball Player has finally gotten some lineup support in the form of free agent signing Anthony Rendon, and more help may be on the way in the form of top prospects Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell. Is it enough to finally get Trout another chance at the postseason? Maybe, but it depends. Pitching is going to be a key factor here, as both the rotation and the bullpen have to step up for the team to take the next step. If everyone does their job and the right circumstances play out, I can see them sneaking into a playoff spot.

4. Rangers

First, the good news: the Rangers pulled off possibly the fleecing of the decade by getting Corey Kluber for one of the worst hitters in the league and a reliever who immediately got busted for PEDs, and he now joins one of the strongest-looking rotations in the majors. That being said, don’t expect much from the Rangers. Last season, Joey Gallo led the team in fWAR with just 3.1. No other player on the team broke the 2-win mark, and certainly no one else on the team has the offensive production capability of Gallo. They’ll finish around .500 if they’re lucky.

5. Mariners

This placement shouldn’t need much explanation. You’re much better off watching Jon Bois and Alex Rubenstein’s amazing History of the Seattle Mariners than you are watching the actual team this year.

Photo by Tom Shide

AL Central

The AL Central has consistently been a weak division in recent years. Since the Royals and Indians went to back-to-back World Series, most of the teams have either been rebuilding or struggling to regain old form. This year, however, this seems to have changed. With the emergence of the Twins as a literal powerhouse last season, there is legitimate rivalry at the top of the division, and the White Sox seem poised to join the conversation. This could be one of the most interesting division race in the Majors this year.

1. Twins

The Bomba Squad is back, and this time they’re bringing the rain. The addition of Josh Donaldson to the Minnesota lineup is like putting gasoline on a fire, as he joins fellow sluggers Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver on their quest to punish baseballs and strike fear into the hearts of pitchers everywhere. This is going to be an incredibly fun team to watch.

2. Indians

That being said, if Minnesota slips up in any way, Cleveland will likely be right there to reclaim the division. They are still a really talented ballclub, with Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez leading the way once again. However, if this core is to make another big push, it’s going to have to be this season or next. Santana is well into his 30s now, and both Ramirez and Lindor are free agents two years from now. If their pitching core stays solid (and it likely will), they’ll have a shot at getting back to the postseason. However, I just don’t think they have enough to get past the Twins if they are at full strength.

3. White Sox

The White Sox have been capital-R Rebuilding for what seems like an eternity. However, this offseason showed that they might finally be getting serious about building a winner. Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion add some instant punch to their lineup, Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez both look ready to tear things up at the Major League level, and Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada both look to follow up their breakout seasons. This is going to be a team to watch from next year onward, but if they play their cards right, we might be able to get a sneak peak of how they look in October.

4. Royals

It’s hard to believe 2015 was only five years ago. Well, that’s true for multiple reasons right now, but it’s especially true if you’re a Royals fan. This team is virtually unrecognizable from their World Series counterparts, both figuratively and literally. I mean, Jorge Soler went off for 40 home runs last year, and most people’s reactions were still “Wait, he’s on the Royals now?” Unfortunately for Kansas City, it’s looking like it’s going to be a long, long road back to relevance. But at least their fans can take solace in one thing: at least they aren’t the Tigers.

5. Tigers

It says a lot about a team when the best day of their season is draft day, and none of it is flattering. Good luck, Spencer, you’re gonna need it. 

Photo by Dan Gold

AL East

Much like the Astros situation in the West, the NL East is the Yankees’ division to lose. With their lineup finally at full strength going into the season, it’s hard to imagine that they have anything in mind besides beating Houston in the ALCS this year. That being said, they’ll have to deal with a hungry Rays squad nipping at their heels and opponents in Toronto and Boston that won’t be easy victories. I believe that this race division will have a profound impact on the playoff picture, because as long as the Yankees stay healthy and do what they can do, it looks like the path to the title will run through the Bronx.

1. Yankees

If they stay healthy, the Yankees are the best team in the American League. Their only big addition was the signing of Gerrit Cole, but really it was all they needed. All of their key starters are returning and healthy for the start of the year (including Aaron Hicks, who will be the first player to have Tommy John surgery and miss zero games), so it’s looking like the Bombers are ready to avenge last year’s ALCS. Much like the Astros in the West, I doubt the Yankees will have trouble taking care of their division.

2. Rays

If they do have trouble, it will be in the form of Tampa Bay. They boast one of the absolute best pitching staffs in baseball, with three separate starters garnering Cy Young buzz before the season has even begun. This strength on the mound, combined with an outfield revamped with new additions like Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, and Japanese star Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, has improved one of the surprise teams from last season and made them a dark horse in this weird season.

3. Blue Jays

Last year was bumpy for the Jays, but the bright side for Toronto fans was that The Three Sons (Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Biggio) were finally able to get their first tastes of the Big Leagues. Now, they get their chance to start taking their team in the right direction. I predict that this is going to be a breakout year for Vlad Jr., and I think this team is going to turn some heads before the season is over. Now, I don’t think they’ll be challenging for October just yet, especially with who is above them in their division, but even a finish at or around .500 would be huge for the confidence of this team going forward.

4. Red Sox

As for Boston...things will get worse before they get better. The losses of Mookie Betts and David Price dealt a massive blow to the Red Sox squad that was already struggling to get back to their 2018 form. Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts are going to try to lead the charge this year, but barring any positive developments within the pitching staff or big years from players like Andrew Benintendi, it feels like 2020 is going to be a year of regression at Fenway.

5. Orioles

Hey, maybe we might get to see Adley Rutschman play this year! (Also, get well soon Trey, we’re all praying for you)

Postseason Predictions

Wild Card

Athletics over Rays

NLDS

Yankees over Athletics

Astros over Twins

NLCS

Yankees over Astros

World Series

Yankees over Braves