Analysis: Updated 2020 Playoff Predictions
For my original predictions for each team this season, click here: AL NL
In a year already full of them, MLB threw baseball fans yet another curveball on Opening Day by announcing that they would be expanding the playoffs for the 2020 season. Now, instead of having 3 division winners and two Wild Card teams from each league, there will be an eight-team bracket made up of the top two teams in each division and the top two records among the rest of the teams.
Obviously, this changes the outlook of most teams considerably. The teams that were already a lock for the postseason may take things a bit slower to prepare for October. At the same time, the teams that have been looking toward next season may choose to be more aggressive and take a chance on this year. Given the huge shift that this change brings to the league and all the roster changes that have happened since Opening Day, I felt it necessary to update my original season predictions to account for them. In many cases, a lot of things are the same, but there are a few key changes to the playoff picture that I see:
National League
NL West
The Dodgers are still a lock for the division winner (and likely the number one seed), but I’ve actually changed my mind regarding the second spot from my original predictions. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from Opening Weekend, it’s that the Padres are much farther along than I thought and the Diamondbacks are a lot worse than I originally imagined. I see San Diego making a strong play for that second slot.
NL Central
Here, I still have the Reds and Cardinals, but this new format took an already open division and made it almost unpredictable. It’s going to be close down to the wire, but ultimately I don’t think Chicago has the bullpen nor Milwaukee the lineup depth to get into those spots.
NL East
I still think the Braves are the best team in this division, and they could be the number two seed if they play up to their potential. However, I’m less confident in the Mets now that they have lost yet another key starter. Their rotation is still going to be decent, but unless their offense can step up, it may be a challenge for them to lock up the second spot. That being said, I think they’ll still pull it off at the end of the year. Even if they don’t, a playoff spot is almost a certainty, as I could easily see this division potentially having four playoff teams at the same time. The Nationals and Phillies are both talented squads, and I think they each have the potential to fight off the Diamondbacks in the West and the Brewers and Cubs in the Central.
NL Wild Card
The Wild Card races are going to be the fun ones to watch, as we’re going to see a fair amount of young, up and coming teams competing against hungry, more established squads looking for another shot at a ring. Trying to predict how this will turn out is a nearly impossible endeavor, but my best guess is that the Diamondbacks will take the one seed and one of the Nationals or Phillies will take the second spot - my gut is telling me the Phillies here.
American League
AL West
The Astros winning the West was basically written in stone before this long offseason even started. Because of this, it seemed like the A’s were destined for yet another Wild Card game (which, to put it mildly, has not treated them well). However, it seems like they will finally get to play in a real playoff series this year. These two are about as good of a lock as can be to come out of the West.
AL Central
Much like the other two divisions, the AL Central has one team that is just head and shoulders above the rest. But unlike their counterparts, there is a much better race for the second spot. The White Sox seem to be finally coming around, and they could be making things interesting with Cleveland toward the end of the season. I still have Cleveland in the second spot for now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Chicago finds their way in there.
AL East
This division is an even better lock than the West. Simply, no other team in the East is in the same universe as the Yankees and the Rays.
AL Wild Card
Whoever doesn’t finish second in the Central between Chicago and Cleveland is going to be a pretty good lock for the first Wild Card. Beyond that, it’s really anyone’s game. Right now, I’m going with the Angels for the second wild card spot.
My Updated Playoff Predictions
NL First Round
Dodgers over Phillies
Braves over Cardinals
Reds over Diamondbacks
Padres over Mets
AL First Round
Yankees over Angels
Astros over White Sox
Twins over Indians
Athletics over Rays
NL Second Round
Dodgers over Braves
Padres over Reds
AL Second Round
Yankees over Astros
Twins over Athletics
Championship Series
Dodgers over Padres
Yankees over Twins
World Series
Yankees over Dodgers
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