Analysis: Mookie Betts is Now a Career Dodger, What’s Next for LA?
Early on Wednesday, rumors were starting to get out that the Dodgers’ 60-game rental of Mookie Betts was close to becoming much more than that. According to MLB Insider Jeff Passan, the reported deal is a monster: a $365+ million contract extension that will keep Mookie in Los Angeles for the next 12(!) seasons. This would be the second richest contract in MLB history, and the longest deal in baseball right now alongside Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract with Philadelphia and Mike Trout’s 12-year extension with the Angels.
For many Dodger haters, this was a day they thought wouldn’t come. After all, it couldn’t be possible for them to give Mookie the megadeal he deserves and still have enough left over to back up the truck for Cody Bellinger, right? Well, it’s never a smart move to underestimate the power of immense wealth. Not only is it possible for them to get both Mookie and Bellinger for the long term, but it’s also quite possible that they could build a dynasty around them that could rule for the entirety of the 2020s. With the imminent completion of this deal, it’s pretty clear what LA’s plans are for World Domination over the next few years.
The first step was to acquire another MVP talent. It cost them quite a bit, as they had to eat at least half of David Price’s contract and give up Kenta Maeda and top prospect Alex Verdugo, but they got their man in Betts (and another prized prospect in Brusdar Graterol). The second, and arguably most important step is the one they are currently finalizing: signing him long-term before he hits free agency. Even if it is still likely that he would re-sign with them, the Dodgers couldn’t take the chance of having Betts test the market and create a bidding war for his services. At best, LA would have to pay an increased premium to lure him away from other teams, likely ending up with an AAV of over $35 million instead of just under $30 million. At worst, they would lose out on Betts to another team, and have their plan be ruined. By getting the deal done now, they save themselves the time and hassle of worrying about either of those outcomes.
But now, what comes next for the Dodgers? Obviously, they’re looking to finally win it all this year, but with a move like this, it seems like they’re focused on building a dynasty far beyond the 2020 season. If they’re going to be successful in doing that, it is going to have to begin this November. Now that Mookie is fully locked up, LA can now focus on the many other key contributors that are scheduled to become free agents, including Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Kike Hernandez, Alex Wood, and key bullpen arms Blake Treinen and Pedro Baez. If I were LA, I’d be trying my hardest to get most of these guys to sign extensions during the season. Similar to the Betts deal, the last thing they want is for all of these players to officially hit the market. As such, the key here is to lock up as many of the expected free agents as possible during the season (especially young guys with a lot of upside like Pederson) in order to keep the future payroll as relatively small as possible.
And the future payroll is the biggest key to implementing the final step in the plan: locking up Cody Bellinger. Doing so is likely going to take yet another 10+ year, $350+ million contract before he becomes a free agent. Luckily for them, they have until 2024 to clear up the payroll space needed to do it. The expiration of Clayton Kershaw’s $31-million-a-year contract after the end of next season should help matters, whether or not LA decides to re-sign him or not. And even though Boston is paying half of David Price’s salary through 2022, that will still save the Dodgers $15+ million in space per year after his contract is up. If the Dodgers and Bellinger don’t come to a long term deal before at least January of 2023, I will be incredibly shocked.
If they somehow manage to follow through with each step of the plan, they will be in perfect position to absolutely dominate at least the next five seasons. Not only will they have prime Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger in the middle of their lineup, but they will also have new contracts for many of their key role players, one of the best farms systems in baseball, Gavin Lux with 6 years of team control, and a rotation headed by Walker Buehler and Dustin May. This is a team that could potentially define the new decade if all goes well for them.
That being said, having the plan is much easier than actually executing it. There’s a lot that could happen in the next couple of seasons. Perhaps someone like Joc, Kike, or Alex Wood decides to sign elsewhere. Maybe they trade away some of their key prospects to bolster the lineup and rotation even further. Who knows, maybe things could end up like the last four seasons and they end up winning zero championships with this core. But for Dodger fans, that’s just something to worry about in the future. Right now, it’s looking pretty sunny in LA.