Analysis: National League Season Predictions

Photo by Sung Shin

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The 2020 season brings with it a lot of uncertainty for the National League. Part of this comes from the weirdness of a 60-game season and the adjustment to using a DH, but a lot of this uncertainty comes from trying to predict how the standings will look at the end of the year. The parity of the NL this season is unlike anything I’ve seen, with 11 teams that have a legitimate shot of making the postseason (sorry Rockies, Giants, Pirates, and Marlins). And with the aforementioned 60-game season adding even more randomness, the pennant is really anyone’s to win. With that being said, here’s how I think things will shake out this season:

Photo by Tim Mossholder

NL West

The NL West has been a race for second place for the majority of the past decade. Los Angeles, with their loaded farm system and equally loaded bank account, has put a chokehold on the division the likes of which haven’t been seen since the Braves of the ‘90s and 2000s. However, even with the winner of the division basically a foregone conclusion, there are two up-and-coming squads that are still looking to make some postseason noise this year.

1. Dodgers

As I mentioned in my article about winners and losers from a shortened season, this is a make-or-break year for the Dodgers, and they’re certainly acting like it. The Mookie Betts trade was exactly the kind of high-risk, high-reward move they needed to make if they want to put themselves over the top this season. He makes an already-loaded lineup even more dangerous, making it hard to believe that LA won’t run away with yet another NL West title. 

2. Diamondbacks

Behind them, Arizona has positioned themselves as a dark-horse Wild Card contender after shoring up their rotation and outfield depth and keeping all of their key players and prospects. If Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar continue their high levels of production, and other players like Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner, David Peralta, and Nick Ahmed play up to their potentials, I can easily see the D-Backs getting a postseason spot this year. 

3. Padres

San Diego has a bright future ahead of them, and new stars like Fernando Tatis Jr. will continue to improve, but a combination of prospects not being ready, a lack of outfield depth, and a rotation still in development may mean that they are still one or two years away. That being said, I think they could potentially play their way into October given the right circumstances.

4. Rockies

Rounding out the division are the Rockies and Giants, two teams in very different places. Colorado is a bad team that wants to pretend that it is still good. Their All-Star core is still intact, but unlike a few years ago they simply do not have enough talent to surround them - especially when it comes to pitching. And as we all know, bad pitching plus Coors Field equals not a whole lot of fun for Rockies fans.

5. Giants

Meanwhile, the Giants have seemingly come to terms with how bad they are and have started to work toward the future. Look for top prospect Joey Bart to maybe get some meaningful playing time with Buster Posey sitting out the season. 

Photo by Seth Reese

NL Central

This was already the hardest division to predict, even without the craziness of a 60-game season. But now, it’s anyone’s game. Realistically, I could see any one of the Cardinals, Reds, or Brewers taking the division, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Cincinnati pulls it out here. It’s going to be close, though.

1. Reds

The Reds certainly have done a great job overhauling their lineup and shoring their rotation, and I think they’ve put together a roster that can win now. However, I am skeptical about how much the new additions to the squad will actually affect the team’s on-field performance. Their season will live or die not by the performance of big names like Shogo, Castellanos, or Bauer, but by the production of their role players on the periphery. If those guys can come through and do their jobs, I think they can pull out a division win.

2. Cardinals

I think the Cardinals will see better production from key players like Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt than they did last season, particularly as the latter continues to get more comfortable in St. Louis. However, I don’t think they will be able to overcome the losses of Marcell Ozuna in the outfield and Jordan Hicks in the bullpen, especially since they made no notable additions to the team in the offseason. They are still a decent team by NL Central standards though, so they may still have a chance, but I think they will come up just short.

3. Brewers

Milwaukee has pretty much the opposite problem of Cincinnati, as they are basically reliant on Christian Yelich for their production. With the loss of Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal, the Brewers are left with just one other returning player worth more than 2 fWAR (Keston Hiura). This doesn’t mean they can’t be good - the additions of Avasail Garcia and Omar Narvaez may help - but ultimately I can’t see them overcoming the issues of their talent depth.

4. Cubs

The Cubs, unfortunately, seem to have the same issues as the Rockies. They seem to still think they are in 2016, and the nostalgia hire of David Ross doesn’t help with those optics. Their bullpen is notoriously bad, and besides the core of Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant, they really don’t have much production anywhere else. They could make up for it if their big three each have amazing seasons, but even then I don’t see a whole lot happening for this team.

5. Pirates

Well, as bad as the Cubs may be this season, they can at least say they aren’t the Pirates, whose last-place finish was all but written in stone before the long offseason even began. 

NL East

The NL East is another incredibly tough division to predict, but it’s a little easier to put them into tiers. The main race is going to be between Atlanta and New York, but this time I think the Braves get the upper hand.

1. Braves

Atlanta has a lot of things going its way. For starters, they had very few roster losses in the offseason, with Josh Donaldson being the only major departure. Second, they made a lot of key additions to shore up their problem areas, bringing in players like Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnoud, Cole Hamels, and Will Smith (the pitcher). If the Yasiel Puig signing had gone through, I think they would be a lock to win the division, but unfortunately it appears they’ll have to settle for being favorites. 

2. Mets

Surprisingly not far behind them though is the Mets. Despite their tumultuous 2019 season, they were a team that still managed to win 86 games and finish third in the division. Like the Braves, they had very few losses (Zack Wheeler being the biggest) and quite a few key additions, particularly to their pitching arsenal. For example, Rick Porcello adds depth to a rotation that is already one of the best in baseball, and Dellin Betances joins a bullpen that could be extremely good if it lives up to its potential. But perhaps their secret weapon could come in the form of Yoenis Cespedes, whose bat has been impressing many during Training Camp. I definitely think they can turn some heads this season.

3. Phillies

Speaking of turning heads, I’m a lot higher on the Phillies than some others out there, and I believe they could be in contention for a Wild Card spot this season. They have a lot of talent on the team in names like Harper, McCutchen, Hoskins, Realmuto, and the returning Didi Gregorius, as well as some promising young players looking to breakout in Wheeler and Scott Kingery. If they can get good years from most of their starters and big years from Harper and Realmuto to lead the way, this team has a lot of potential.

4. Nationals

I have the Nationals in fourth, not because I think they’re bad, but simply because the other three teams are just better. They were able to survive the loss of Bryce Harper due to the rise of Juan Soto, but now that they have lost Anthony Rendon, they don’t have anyone to fill that hole and they did not bring in anyone that could. Their rotation will be as good as ever, with their three-headed-monster in Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin all returning for 2020, but I find it hard to believe that the offense supporting them will be as strong as it was, which could mean trouble for the defending champs. But hey, they proved us all wrong before. Maybe they can do it again.

5. Marlins

Oh, yeah, the Marlins are also there.

Postseason Predictions

Wild Card

Mets over Diamondbacks

NLDS

Dodgers over Mets

Braves over Reds

NLCS

Braves over Dodgers