Our 2021 Season Preview: American League Predictions
This is the second part of our 2021 Season Preview series. Click here for part one, which covers our National League predictions.
AL East
Like usual, the AL East is the Yankees’ division to lose, but there are some hungry teams below them waiting to strike if they stumble. The Blue Jays are entering their win-now era and the Rays once again wait in the wings hoping to shock the world. Here’s how I think things are going to play out this year:
1. New York Yankees
2020: 2nd in AL East
PECOTA Projection: 100-62
They may not have added much this offseason, but frankly they didn’t need to. With their core finally back healthy (how many times have we said that over the years in season previews?), they already have one of the best teams in baseball just by keeping everybody on the squad. However, the additions of Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber should help with questions about the rotation depth. If they can stay healthy this year (again, how many times have we said that?), they are the favorites to win the AL. But even if they deal with injuries again, they are still likely going to win the division.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
2020: 3rd in AL East, Wild Card
PECOTA Projection: 85-77
The Blue Jays went out looking to make a splash this offseason, and while they had a few failures early on in acquiring top tier talent, they finally managed to land their new center fielder in George Springer and a new second baseman in Marcus Semien. The pitching is still suspect at best beyond Hyun-jin Ryu, but between Springer, Semien, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Vlad Jr., they have too much talent not to make some noise this season. Granted, they won’t have enough to reach the Yankees of course, but they will have enough to merit a wild-card spot at least.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
2020: 1st in AL East
PECOTA Projection: 87-75
I could spend a whole article talking about how their pursuit of eternal cheapness is ultimately self-sabotaging and bad for the game. In fact, I already have. They are still going to be a good team this year, but obviously not as good as they would have been with Blake Snell and Charlie Morton in the rotation. Even still, there will still be a lot to look forward to for the Rays in 2021. Randy Arozarena will get his first real season in the big leagues, Wander Franco will finally make the leap from number one prospect to big leaguer, and I’m sure they’ll find another no-name player to turn into an All-Star overnight. However, I don’t think it’s going to be enough to compete in the division this time.
4. Boston Red Sox
2020: 5th in AL East
PECOTA Projection: 80-82
The Red Sox made some good additions this offseason, but not in the places they really needed. I love the additions of Marwin Gonzales and Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe should bring some more pop to the lineup, and I’m really looking forward to seeing what Bobby Dalbec can do over a full season. But what they didn’t improve at all is the one thing they needed more than anything else: pitching. Sure, they added Adam Ottavino for the bullpen, and they’re getting Eduardo Rodriguez back this year. But even with that, they will still have one of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball. Because of that, .500 is likely the ceiling for them unless some drastic developments come about this season.
5. Baltimore Orioles
2020: 4th in AL East
PECOTA Projection: 68-94
At this point, do we really need to say anything more about the Orioles? They’re bad, we all know they are bad, and they still will be bad for at least the immediate future. That being said, I do at least think that they won’t have the worst record in baseball this year, which is progress I guess.
AL Central
The central is likely the biggest tossup of all these divisions. Here, we have two teams of comparable talent duking it out for supremacy, while two other squads look to make some noise, and the Tigers are also there. Here’s how I see things playing out in the Central:
1. Chicago White Sox
2020: 2nd in AL Central
PECOTA Projection: 80-82
Every year, PECOTA tends to come up with some pretty odd predictions, and this is a perfect case in point. I don’t understand how anyone can look at this White Sox squad and come to the conclusion that they will be below .500 in 2021. Even though last year was a shortened season, it still served as the official start to the new era of White Sox baseball, and they are even better to start this season. Even without the services of Eloy Jimenez, they can still rely on the likes of Tim Anderson, Lucas Giolito, Luis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal, as well as new additions in Liam Hendriks and Lance Lynn. Even though I do have some doubts about how new manager Tony La Russa will lead this team, they have too much talent to not make the playoffs this season.
2. Minnesota Twins
2020: 1st in AL Central
PECOTA Projection: 92-70
Don’t get me wrong, the Twins still have a pretty good squad this year, but I do not think they have a 90-plus-win squad like PECOTA thinks. I like the addition of guys like Andrelton Simmons and Alex Colome, but ultimately, it’s likely not going to be enough to keep pace with the White Sox unless they can get some major, injury-free seasons from Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, and most of the rotation beyond Kenya Maeda. Unless everything can come together for them, I see them hanging around 85 wins or so - good enough for a possible Wild Card, but not enough to win the division.
3. Kansas City Royals
2020: 4th in AL Central
PECOTA Projection: 72-90
Of all the teams in baseball, the Royals have had perhaps the most perplexing offseason. They are certainly not in a position to win now, but that didn’t stop them from making moves as if they were: adding names like Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi while also signing Salvador Perez to a four-year extension (And the biggest contract in team history). In my opinion, they won’t have enough pitching to really make an impact or catch up with the top two teams in the division, but I do think they will be better than a lot of people think - partly as a result of these moves. And even if all else fails, Royals fans can still look forward to watching Bobby Witt Jr. sometime this season. I see them being around .500 at best.
4. Cleveland Baseball Team
2020: 3rd in AL Central, Wild Card
PECOTA Projection: 86-76
This is a team with no identity - and I’m not talking about their name situation. Of course, we saw plenty of teams offload future costs and cry poor after 2020, but I don’t think anyone came close to Cleveland in this regard. In one offseason, they went from being a regular contender with two perennial MVP candidates to losing the face of their franchise and having a total Major League payroll lower than Trevor Bauer’s salary. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans, the results of this drastic teardown will be painfully apparent this season. They still have some bright spots in reigning Cy Young Shane Bieber and MVP finalist Jose Ramirez, but it’s not currently known how long that will be the case. Perhaps they can rally Major League style and surprise us all with a playoff run, but right now the trajectory of this season looks pretty rough.
5. Detroit Tigers
2020: 5th in AL Central
PECOTA Projection: 66-96
Will the Tigers still be one of the worst teams in baseball? Absolutely. But for the first time in a while, it feels like hope may be on the horizon. They have some interesting prospects in the pipeline, their presumed manager of the future in AJ Hinch, and yet another top 5 draft pick on the way this year, so the hope of a better tomorrow is there. Unfortunately for Tigers fans, that tomorrow is still a few years away. Before they can see the likes of Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson become superstars, they still have to deal with the likes of Matthew Boyd and an over-the-hill Miguel Cabrera being the best Detroit has to offer. And sadly, this means that asking for even 70 wins might be asking for too much.
AL West
In my opinion, the fate of the West is really going to depend on Los Angeles. If they fail once again to reach their potential, the division is Houston’s to lose. However, if they can at least put together some decent pitching and their offense performs like it can, they have a good opportunity to take control. Here is the most likely scenario for 2021:
1. Houston Astros
2020: 2nd in AL West
PECOTA Projection: 92-70
They may have lost George Springer to the Blue Jays, lost most of their starting pitching options to injury, and have a lot of angry fans awaiting them on the road, but Houston is still the best team in their division this year. The big thing for them this year is going to be the pitching. Verlander will still be out for most of the year, and Framber Valdez will be out for about the same amount of time. How the other starters do in picking up that slack is going to be what makes or breaks their season. If they can get back to the postseason this year, they’ve proven that they can get back to the Fall Classic with their core. However, it’s going to be considerably harder this year than it was in previous years. I’m expecting about 85-90 wins for them this season.
2. Los Angeles Angels
2020: 4th in AL West
PECOTA Projection: 87-75
LA’s other team had literally one job this offseason: find pitching. Everybody in the baseball world knows what the glaring issue with this team has always been, and everybody knows how good they can be if they had even a mediocre pitching staff. Yet every year, we watch them fail Mike Trout once again by throwing a group of scrubs out on the mound. So were things any different this offseason? Not really. Once again, they struck out on all of the best pitchers on the market, so once again they have to rely on reclamation projects. They were able to acquire Raisel Iglesias, which should help to bolster their bullpen, but that was pretty much it. Having Ohtani back on the mound is going to be huge for them of course, but if they are going to succeed they need to hope that Dylan Bundy can continue his surprise resurgence, guys like Griffin Canning can take the next step, and that new additions like Alex Cobb and Jose Quintana can revive their careers like Bundy. Between Ohtani, Trout, Fletcher, Rendon, and Upton, they have more than enough offensive potential, and if the pitching can finally come through, they could go far. I, for one, would like to see Albert Pujols make the playoffs again in his final season, and they have a good chance to make it happen.
3. Oakland Athletics
2020: 1st in AL West
PECOTA Projection: 83-79
There’s not really much to say about the A’s this year. They aren’t *good*, but they aren’t all that bad either. They may have lost their star shortstop to free agency, but they still have their core of Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Ramon Laureano intact. However, they didn’t add much to help the squad. Their best reliever left for Chicago, and their biggest additions were a 32-year-old Elvis Andrus and 35-year-old Mitch Moreland. In other words, I don’t think it’s going to be enough for them to fully compete for another division title this year. I would put my money on them being exactly 82-82, just out of reach of a Wild Card spot.
4. Seattle Mariners
2020: 3rd in AL West
PECOTA Projection: 71-91
The bad news? The Mariners likely have another rough season ahead of them this year. The good news? This might be the last one for a while. Everyone knows that Seattle has quite the stockpile of talent waiting in the wings in Kelenic, Trammell, Rodriguez and co. Unfortunately, thanks to a certain executive, everyone also knows that the front office is going to do whatever they can to keep their service time clocks from starting. As such, this season feels like more of a transition year than anything for the Mariners. 75 wins feels like a good ceiling for them in 2021, but the real fun will begin next year. In the meantime, fans might be better served watching Jon Bois’ incredible documentary on the team instead of the product on the field.
5. Texas Rangers
2020: 5th in AL West
PECOTA Projection: 68-94
The Rangers are another team suffering from Diamondbacks syndrome in recent years: when they’ve tried to tank, they’ve performed well enough for the front office to build on that promise; but when they try to build on that promise, everything has gone wrong. The main difference here is that Arizona still has a middle-of-the-road team. Texas, meanwhile, has been left with practically nothing, especially since their two best pitchers (Lance Lynn and Corey Kluber) have left for other teams. Needless to say, Texas fans will be in for a lot of pain this year. But hey, at least they’ll be able to check out the new ballpark in person.
Playoff Teams
Ten-Team Playoff
1st Seed: Yankees
2nd Seed: White Sox
3rd Seed: Astros
WC1: Blue Jays
WC2: Twins
2020 Sixteen-Team Playoff
1st-3rd seeds: Yankees, White Sox, Astros
4th-6th seeds: Blue Jays, Twins, Angels
Wild Cards: Rays, Athletics