Our 2021 Season Preview: National League Predictions
With Spring Training winding down in 2021, it’s almost time for a (somewhat) normal baseball season to begin. And as fans start to return to the ballpark once again, so too comes all the predictions about how the new year will turn out. So, without further ado, here is the first part of our 2021 season prediction series, which focuses on the Senior Circuit and its teams.
NL East
In my opinion, the East is going to be the most interesting division in baseball this year. Not only does each team boast quite a bit of talent, but they are also fairly evenly matched. Between the rejuvenated Mets, the returning champion Braves, the dark horse Nationals, the upstart Marlins, and a solid Phillies squad, trying to decide a winner in this division is a bit of a crapshoot. However, I do get the feeling that no matter what happens, we will be seeing at least two teams from this division come October. Here’s how I think things will shape out this year:
1. New York Mets
2020: 4th in NL East
PECOTA Projection: 93-69
I know we say this every year, but this time it might actually be true: this might be the year the Mets finally put it all together. Every single year, it seems they are just a single tweak away from reaching their potential and meeting the lofty projections always given to them, and every single year, they fail to live up to that promise. 2020 was no different in this regard. However, now that they have the richest owner in baseball, one of the game’s biggest stars as their shortstop, and most of their rotation returning from injury, it really feels like this is the Mets’ moment to shine and establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with in the East. With Lindor and deGrom leading the way, I think they are going to make it happen this year. I’m looking for roughly 90 wins from them, and possibly a second-round playoff appearance.
2. Atlanta Braves
2020: 1st in NL East
PECOTA Projection: 83-79
Despite what PECOTA may think year after year, the Braves are still a good team, plenty good enough to win this division for a fourth straight year if things go their way. However, I have them at number two mainly because they really didn’t do anything to actually add to the team. Sure, they brought back Marcell Ozuna (as they should), but when the biggest names you signed over the offseason are Pablo Sandoval, Jake Lamb, and Jason Kipnis, it’s not exactly great news. Granted, the lineup is good enough already to where there’s not a lot you need to add, but some added pitching depth would have greatly helped this team. Regardless, I think they’ll end up somewhere just shy of 90 wins and make their way into a Wild Card spot.
3. Washington Nationals
2020: 5th in NL East
PECOTA Projection: 84-78
The Nationals are the wild card in this division. Obviously, last year was a disaster for them, but there’s still a lot to like here. They still have Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin at the top of the rotation, they still have the best hitter in baseball in Juan Soto, and they still have one of the more underrated players in the game in Trea Turner. If those guys can keep up their performance, new additions Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber can return to their old form, and the bullpen can hold up this season, this is a potential dark horse team in the making. For now though, I have them around the middle of the pack.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
2020: 3rd in NL East
PECOTA Projection: 84-78
The Phillies have a lot of talent, and they could be a really good team, but a lot would have to go right to make that happen. The additions to their bullpen would all have to work out for them, guys like Scott Kingery will have to get back on track, Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto will have to be at their best, pitchers like Spencer Howard will have to step up to support the rotation, and Alec Bohm will have to continue the hot start to his career. If they can manage to pull that off, they could be up there competing with the two big fish in their division. If they don’t, however, they will likely end up around .500 once again.
5. Miami Marlins
2020: 2nd in NL East
PECOTA Projection: 70-92
Last year in my predictions, I sort of wrote off the Marlins as a joke, not even giving them a proper breakdown. But now, I see that there is much more to this team than what first meets the eye. Even though it wasn’t really clear how good last year’s team actually was (which I wrote about here), what was clear was that they were much better than everyone thought - especially considering what they had to overcome to make the playoffs last year. However, what is important to note here is that this isn’t a team built with 2021 in mind. With seasoned front office veteran Kim Ng at the helm, Manager of the Year Don Mattingly in the clubhouse, a stable ownership group in place, and intriguing talent all over their farm system, Miami has a good future ahead of them if they are able to maintain course. MLB.com currently has them having the 4th best farm system in baseball, and players like Sixto Sanchez and Brian Anderson are forming a nucleus of young talent at the big league level. They may not compete for the crown this year, but expect them to make some noise - and win more than 70 games - in 2021.
NL Central
With the most interesting division in MLB out of the way, we now turn our attention to the most boring one. To say that the Central has been underwhelming in recent years is quite the understatement. Sure, they may have somehow found a way to bring four teams into the postseason last year, but to say that any of those teams deserved to be there is stretching the truth at best. In fact, those four teams played a total of nine games in October last season, and they only managed to win one of them. Even the Cubs - who won the division and had the highest seed - got humiliated in a two game sweep by the Marlins. And unfortunately - for both the teams and their fans - it looks like there is much more mediocre baseball to come in 2021. Here are my predictions for the worst division in baseball:
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2020: 2nd in NL Central
PECOTA Projection: 80-82
Heading into January, the Cardinals were already a decent team. Not great, but decent nonetheless. However, now that they have gotten paid $50 million to take Nolan Arenado from Colorado, does this make them division conquerors? Not really, but it does still make them better. Even with the new addition at third base and the return of guys like Jordan Hicks, there are still some questions on this roster. How will the loss of Kolten Wong affect the infield? How good will their pitching depth be? Can Andrew Knizner prove that he’s ready to take over for Yadi? Will this be the year that Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson figure it out at the big league level? A lot is still uncertain regarding this team. However, even with that uncertainty, I still think that the Cardinals are the best team in the division - even though they likely will not touch 90 wins this year.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2020: 4th in NL Central, Wild Card
PECOTA Projection: 90-72
The Brewers are kind of an interesting case here. They aren’t exactly *good*, but they have gotten better this offseason - which in this case may be just enough to win this division. I think Christian Yelich’s uncharacteristic season really held them back last year, but I also highly doubt that we will see a repeat of that in 2021. Plus, I really do like the additions of Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr. They can both do a lot of things well, and if they can both put together decent seasons they can give their team a chance to compete. However, the real big factor here is going to be pitching. If the Brewers are to be successful this year, they need to see continued success from guys like Josh Hader, Devin Williams, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff. If all goes well, I can see them pulling together around 85 wins or so, but I’m not so sure they’ll reach their PECOTA projection of 90.
3. Cincinnati Reds
2020: 3rd in NL Central, Wild Card
PECOTA Projection: 78-84
The 2019-2020 Reds were a modern baseball tragedy: the small-market team that actually bothered to try winning games, only to have almost every move fall apart when it mattered the most. Of course, it hasn’t been all bad. The Sonny Gray deal looks pretty good now, Trevor Bauer won the Cy Young last year, and Luis Castillo has developed into a starter with star potential. But unfortunately, adding guys like Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Shogo Akiyama has not created the kind of lineup production they were expecting. As a result, instead of turning heads last year and breaking out as competitors in the division, the only things that turned heads about the Reds in 2020 were Bauer’s various exploits and their broadcaster casually saying homophobic slurs on the air. Sadly, I don’t see things changing much for them in 2021. The offense is largely the same, but the pitching staff has now lost Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and many key figures in the bullpen. Overally, I see this team hovering around .500, with any game above that being gravy for them.
4. Chicago Cubs
2020: 1st in NL Central
PECOTA Projection: 85-77
By bringing in David Ross to manage the team and bringing back Jake Arrieta, the Cubs have somehow managed to lean even harder into 2016 nostalgia over the past year. Which is fitting, considering this will be the last gasp of it before it is blown up completely. Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish was traded away to San Diego, and most of the rotation left along with him - leaving behind Kyle Hendricks and not much else. The bullpen is equally shaky, which is par for the course at this point. And offensively, really nothing has changed except for them replacing Kyle Schwarber with Joc Pederson (even then, as I explained in a recent article, that’s not really much of a change at all). With a new man in charge in Jed Hoyer and a disappointing season ominously awaiting them, I’d say be ready to see Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez, or Kris Bryant in new uniforms by the end of the year. If they win more than 80 games, I will be genuinely shocked.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
2020: 5th in NL Central
PECOTA Projection: 62-100
If you’re hoping for some sort of optimism for this team, you’re not going to find it here. They will have the worst record in baseball, they will likely use that number one pick on a pitcher, and (as per usual) they will likely run that pitcher into the ground before they trade him away for nothing. Such is the circle of baseball life. Enjoy Ke’Bryan Hayes while you still have him, Pirates fans.
NL West
While the East may be the most interesting division in baseball, the West is definitely the most exciting - and certainly the one people will be watching most often. Of course, this has to do with its top two teams: the defending World Series champion Dodgers, and their new challengers in the completely reloaded Padres. Much like ancient Roman consuls, these two will equally dominate the others below them in the division - all the while not-so-secretly competing against each other to see who will have supreme dominance at the end of the year. In a way, it almost doesn’t matter how the standings actually turn out, as whoever doesn’t win the division between LA and San Diego will be practically guaranteed a Wild Card spot, while the other three teams in the division are hopelessly irrelevant. Regardless, here’s how I think things will go in the West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2020: 1st in NL West
PECOTA Projection: 104-58
There’s not much else that can be said about the Dodgers at this point. They’ve won this division eight times in a row, they just won the World Series, they are the richest team in baseball, and they just paid the reigning Cy Young winner $40 million to join them in 2021 (good luck with that one, LA). They are at the very peak of their power, and yet more help is still on the way. Anything less than 100 wins and a World Series appearance is a failure for them.
2. San Diego Padres
2020: 2nd in NL West
PECOTA Projection: 95-67
In the span of a few days, the Padres went from a promising young team on the rise to instant title contenders. They traded for two of the best pitchers in baseball in Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, they acquired heralded infielder Ha-seong Kim from the KBO, and, of course, they signed their franchise shortstop - and the face of baseball - to a 14-year contract. Oh, and they did all of this while retaining almost all of the top prospects in their system. This is a really good team, and I think they could give LA a run for their money, but I think there will be a few growing pains before that happens. I don’t always agree with PECOTA, but I think it has San Diego just about right here.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
2020: 5th in NL West
PECOTA Projection: 78-84
Much like the Reds, the Diamondbacks swung for the fences to capitalize on a surprising 2019, only for them to fail miserably in 2020. Their budding core of Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Carson Kelly, and Eduardo Escobar all fell flat on their face simultaneously, their injuries were an issue throughout the entire season, their pitching was atrocious outside of Zac Gallen, and they were forced to do a soft blow-up at the trade deadline. Like the Giants, they did not do much to bolster their roster this offseason outside of adding an aging Asdrubal Cabrera and bringing in a few additions to the bullpen. However, unlike the Giants, I don’t think this will hurt the Diamondbacks that much. For one thing, I think that players like Marte and Escobar will probably play closer to where they were in 2019 than when they were in 2020. For another, I think much of this year will be spent getting young guys like Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho, and Pavin Smith more comfortable at the big league level. I think that they will be better than some people think (and that #6 draft pick will be put to good use), but they still won’t come anywhere close to the top dogs in the division. I expect another season around .500 for them this year.
4. San Francisco Giants
2020: 3rd in NL West
PECOTA Projection: 76-86
I’m really not quite sure what to make of the Giants. Obviously they have some great talent on the way in the form of prospects like Joey Bart, but for now they are one of the oldest teams in baseball - one whose potential success would rely on a few of their reclamation projects working out. I mean, just take a look at some of the additions they’ve made this offseason. Scott Kazmir? Aaron Sanchez? Alex Wood? Justin Bour? Aside from the addition of Tommy La Stella (and maybe Anthony DeSclafani if all goes well for him), the Giants have done nothing this offseason to actually make their team better. They may have surprised some people last year, but this season feels like a rough regression to the mean waiting to happen. I’d say 80 games is their ceiling, but their final record will likely be lower.
5. Colorado Rockies
2020: 4th in NL West
PECOTA Projection: 62-100
I’ll let Foolish Baseball take this one, as he says it way better than I ever could. What a poverty franchise.
Playoff Teams
Ten-Team Playoff
1st Seed: Dodgers
2nd Seed: Mets
3rd Seed: Cardinals
WC1: Padres
WC2: Braves
2020 Sixteen-Team Playoff
1st-3rd seeds: Dodgers, Mets, Cardinals
4th-6th seeds: Padres, Braves, Brewers
Wild Cards: Nationals, Phillies