Our 2021 Season Preview: Awards Predictions
This is part 3 of our 2021 Season Preview series. Click here to read parts one and two, which cover our predictions for each league and division.
Now that we have established our picks for how each team will fare in each division and who will ultimately reach the playoffs, it is now time to round out our 2021 Season Preview series by predicting which players will win the big three individual awards for each league. For each individual award, we will state our pick, as well as one dark horse candidate to keep an eye on over the course of the season:
American League
Rookie of the Year
Our Pick: Randy Arozarena
Over the course of about 3 weeks last season, “some mf named Randy'' went from an unknown, promising prospect to the cornerstone of the Tampa Bay Rays and possibly the biggest reason they got as far as they did in October. While I don’t think anyone is expecting him to go off quite as much as he did during his playoff breakout in 2021, it’s hard not to think of him as the easy pick for this award. At the very least, as the number-three hitter and offensive leader for the defending American League champs, he will be the rookie with the most eyes on him. With that being said, there are still quite a few talented suitors that will be in contention for the honor this year, namely Jared Kelenic, Bobby Dalbec, Ryan Mountcastle, and possibly Arozarena’s future teammate Wander Franco.
Our Dark Horse: Bobby Witt Jr.
Prior to Spring Training this season, I’m not sure how many casual baseball fans outside of the midwest had Bobby Witt Jr. on their radar. However, after he spent most of March filling the highlight reels with monster home runs, many more people got to see what MLB’s seventh-ranked prospect can do. At just 20 years old, he is the prototypical 5-tool player, with 60-grade stuff across the board and a power-speed combo that makes him a special talent as a middle infielder. Of course, him winning this award in 2021 is a very long shot, as he is starting the year in the minors and doesn’t have much pro ball experience. However, if he continues to improve and impress like he has across the last 8 months, he could find himself in the majors sooner rather than later - especially since KC’s roster isn’t particularly deep in the middle infield. And if that happens, I think he could really turn some heads.
Cy Young
Our Pick: Lucas Giolito
Out of the three big awards in the American League, the Cy Young is the one most likely up for grabs. There are certainly a lot of great contenders, including Tyler Glasnow, Gerrit Cole, Kenta Maeda, and reigning winner Shane Bieber. Realistically, I could see any one of those hurlers taking home the crown in 2021, but my gut is telling me to go with Giolito here. After spending the last two years turning himself from one of the worst pitchers in baseball to the ace of the White Sox rotation, I think 2021 is going to be the year he truly establishes himself among the game’s elites. He’s posted a K/9 over 11.5 in both of the last two seasons, he’s already posted a 5 fWAR season in 2019, was on a 6-fWAR pace in 2020, and his xERA and FIP last year suggest that he pitched even better than his 3.48 ERA. I have high expectations for him (and the White Sox in general) this season.
Our Dark Horse: Dylan Bundy
After spending years betting on reclamation projects to bolster their rotation, it seems as though the Angels finally managed to hit on one. In an otherwise disappointing 2020 for the halos, Bundy was a revelation, posting nearly 10 K/9, walking one less batter per nine, and taking down his ERA from 4.79 to 3.29 (with a FIP of 4.73 and 2.95, respectively). In other words, he went from a guy barely hanging on at the big league level to a potential ace for a potential playoff team. Of course, a lot of his success in 2020 was based on his success in keeping the ball in the park, and I don’t think he’ll be able to replicate his 0.69 HR/9 over a full season, but I don’t think his 2020 was a fluke. Keep an eye on him this season, because if he can keep up his resurgence, he might be able to earn his way into the awards conversation.
MVP
Our Pick: Mike Trout
2020 may have technically been the worst year of his career. After all, he *only* had a 162 wRC+ and *only* finished fifth in MVP voting and *only* was on a 7.5 WAR pace. However, he remains the frontrunner to me unless somebody can come and knock him off the pedestal. Not that there aren’t plenty of people coming for the crown, of course. His teammate Anthony Rendon always finds a way to get in the conversation, Alex Bregman can produce an 8-9 win season basically at will, and players like George Springer have the ability to put themselves in contention. But still, the question we ask every year is this: Are they better than Trout? And that gives you a good idea where the goalpost lies in the Junior Circuit.
Our Dark Horse: Shohei Ohtani
This pick, of course, comes with a big question: Will he be able to pitch for the entire season? After a disastrous 2020, Shohei has proven in Spring Training this year that he could be back to his early 2018 form, hitting triple digits on the radar gun in addition to home runs that can clear the batter’s eye. I know we’ve been saying this for the past three years now, but if he can somehow find a way where he can go both ways the entire season and produce roughly 3 WAR on both the mound and the plate, it’s going to be really hard to keep him out of the MVP discussion. I’m praying, for all of our sakes, that we will be able to see him do it this season.
National League
Rookie of the Year
Our Pick: Ke’Bryan Hayes
As MLB’s ninth-ranked prospect, people were expecting alot from Ke’Bryan Hayes. But I don’t think anyone could have expected what he would actually do in his first month in Pittsburgh. During his September debut, Hayes posted a .376/.442/.682 with 5 home runs, good enough for a 195 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR in roughly 30 days. Now, obviously this is a small sample size and his BABIP was through the roof, but even still, it’s hard not to like what we all saw from him last season. He brings decent power, an above-average glove, and the kind of superstar potential that the Pirates have been desperately looking for for so long, and I can’t wait to see what he can do with a full season of games. As such, he’s my front-runner for this award, but be on the lookout for other guys like Dylan Carlson to break out in a big way this year.
Our Dark Horse: Sixto Sanchez
Ok, perhaps this isn’t the darkest of dark horse candidates, but there’s no way I can have this conversation and leave Sixto out of it. Sure, he’s starting the year in the minors, which does put him at a disadvantage in terms of awards season. However, considering how electric he was down the stretch in 2020, there’s no reason not to expect big things from him once he gets back to the bigs in 2021. Even if he doesn’t win the award outright, I imagine he’s still going to get at least some votes.
Cy Young
Our Pick: Jacob deGrom
In contrast to the AL Cy Young race, this was about as automatic of a pick as one could get. I mean, how can you NOT have deGrom as the favorite to win? Not only is he throwing the ball better than he was in his back-to-back Cy Young seasons, he is now doing it with a triple-digit fastball and a slider that hits 95(!) on the radar gun. The man is simply the best pitcher on Earth right now, and it’s going to take one hell of a season to keep him away from his third trophy in four years.
Our Dark Horse: Devin Williams
If the Brewers are to have a chance at fulfilling their potential and making a big splash this season, it is going to have to start with their pitching. And while a lot of that pressure will be placed on Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, and Corbin Burnes, the pitcher with the most expectations in Milwaukee is likely Williams, who came onto the scene in a big way in 2020. Over the course of 27 innings last season, the rookie gave up only one earned run and posted an utterly insane rate of 17.67 K/9 (no, that is not a typo). Add that to a BABIP of .194, a 61.1% ground ball rate, and 1.4 fWAR out of the bullpen, and you have yourself an utterly dominant relief ace. Now, a reliever hasn’t won the Cy Young since Eric Gagne in 2003, but if anyone is going to pull it off, it would likely be Williams. Why? Well, mainly because of his devastating changeup, which has been lovingly dubbed “The Airbender” by Pitching Ninja and is already being named by some as the greatest single pitch they have ever seen. If The Airbender is at full power in 2021 and he is still throwing his fastball at roughly 97, it’s about to be a rough year for hitters in the NL Central.
MVP
Our Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr.
As good as Tatis is, this was probably the most difficult pick to make of the six awards I am discussing here. Realistically, I imagine that this is going to be a toss up between Tatis, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts. While I figure Soto is going to put up better numbers on offense than the other two, it is going to be Tatis’ superiority in the other facets of the game that is going to put him over the top here. If he can keep up his 150 wRC+ pace from the past two seasons while continuing to improve on defense and putting up 20-30 steals this year, it’s hard to imagine a world where he doesn’t end up as the MVP. But then again, crazier things have happened.
Our Dark Horse: Trea Turner
There are a lot of potential dark horse candidates in the Senior Circuit. New teammates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are always threats to put up big seasons, reigning winner Freddie Freeman is as consistent as they come, and Ronald Acuna Jr. could potentially put up a 40-40 season. But if you’re looking for a true dark horse, look no further than Turner, who has been very overlooked over the past two seasons. While most people were understandably distracted by his teammate Soto, Turner quietly accumulated the fourth-most fWAR in the National League last season. Not only is he one of the fastest players in the league, but he has also developed the ability to hit for power and average in recent years. In fact, in about the same number of at-bats in 2020, he actually outhit Tatis in terms of AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS while striking out roughly half as much as Tatis (13.9% K rate compared to 23.7%). If he can put up 20-25 homers this season while keeping up his production on the basepaths and continuing to get on base at an above-average rate, he could make some noise this season.