Commentary: The Weirdest Deadline
Over the next two days, Major League GMs across the country are going to be faced with a complicated dilemma. To trade, or not to trade? That will be the question.
Normally, the trade deadline is a day that every GM meticulously plans out for four months, a day that can potentially make or break a season or set a franchise on a new path forward. But in the case of the 2020 season, you get the sense that no one really has a clue how to go about the August 31st deadline. This isn’t anyone’s fault, of course, just a byproduct of the awful circumstances that brought us to this point.
So what are the front offices going to do? Well, like any trade deadline, it’s incredibly difficult to predict. But if we look at this through the angle of economics and game theory, we can get a good idea of what teams might be thinking. Given the increased risk of trading, the lack of reliable information, and the limited knowledge of the other GMs strategies, I think it’s safe to assume that many teams will take the safe route and trade as little as possible.
On one hand, it’s nearly impossible to gauge the true talent level of a ballclub from this small of a sample size (*insert obligatory 2019 Nationals reference here*), and that alone might deter teams from trading. Some GMs, like Mike Hazen of the Diamondbacks, are dealing with teams that are vastly underperforming expectations, but have no real reason to be sellers at the deadline. And for teams on the opposite end of that spectrum, such as the Giants or the Marlins, it doesn’t really make sense to sell off part of the future to try and make a run this year.
On the other hand, it’s also nearly impossible to predict how the players will perform in the small sample size to come, giving trades an even higher level of risk. Buying at the deadline is already an incredibly risky investment as it is. At it’s best, a team can completely reinvigorate itself by adding the right pieces, much like Arizona did with JD Martinez in 2017. However, teams also run the risk of handicapping their future for a minimal return. For example, while there was no doubt that getting Jose Quintana helped the 2017 Cubs return to the NLCS that year, Theo Epstein had to give up Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease in the process--two pieces that could have certainly helped the modern-day Cubs.
It also doesn’t help that largely due to these factors, most GMs probably don’t have a set plan in place for their trade deadline strategy. After all, most teams aren’t in a place to really buy or sell, as anything could happen in the course of september. Because of this, it will likely be much more difficult for teams to find willing trade partners, as I would imagine most teams are looking more towards 2021 than the rest of 2020.
In other words, both the supply and demand for trades are going to be way down this year. Of course, this has not stopped some teams from making deals, with the Blue Jays acquiring rotation help from Taijuan Walker and the Padres getting bullpen depth from Trevor Rosenthal. But overall, we can expect that even with all of the craziness surrounding it, this should be one of the least eventful deadlines of all time. Perhaps some GMs can prove me wrong in the next two days, but there’s only one way to find out. Let the games begin.