Analysis: A Tale of Two Deadlines
On Sunday, the day before the trade deadline, I posted an article predicting that this deadline would be one of the most uneventful in decades. To be fair, this was mostly true at the time I wrote it. However, Deadline Day would turn out to be nearly as action-packed as usual, as GMs came together to make many more deals than I expected. When the smoke cleared after 1pm on Monday, two teams from the same division would stand as the biggest movers and shakers at the deadline. However, they did so by taking their respective franchises into completely opposite directions.
First, while a good part of my article from Sunday would turn out to be debunked on Monday, there’s one section in particular that I would be especially wrong about:
“On one hand, it’s nearly impossible to gauge the true talent level of a ballclub from this small of a sample size (*insert obligatory 2019 Nationals reference here*), and that alone might deter teams from trading. Some GMs, like Mike Hazen of the Diamondbacks, are dealing with teams that are vastly underperforming expectations, but have no real reason to be sellers at the deadline.”
Apparently, Mike Hazen disagreed, as he offloaded every asset he could possibly get rid of at the deadline. It started when the god-awful duo of Robbie Ray and Andrew Chafin were booted out of town for Travis Bergen and the possibility of a PTBNL if the Cubs make the playoffs. These moves were not surprising. Given their horrendous performances this season, it was not a question of if they would be dealt but rather if they could actually get anything for them (short answer, no; they literally had to pay the Blue Jays to take Ray off their hands).
That being said, what was surprising to Diamondbacks fans were Hazen’s next two moves. First, he traded Starling Marte - their key offseason acquisition and one of their only good offensive players in 2020 - to the Marlins in exchange for Caleb Smith (presumably to replace Ray in the rotation) and two of Miami’s pitching prospects. He then topped that with what many consider to be his worst deal of the day: trading away franchise icon Archie Bradley to the Reds for one of the worst players in baseball in Josh VanMeter and a 24-year-old outfielder who has never played past AA.
While Hazen insists that the team has not thrown the “white flag” on the 2020 season, these moves send an obvious message to the contrary. With the Diamondbacks playing the way they are (At the time I am writing this, they have now lost 11 of their last 12 games), no one can blame him for not wanting to discount their future for a doomed season, nor can they blame him for wanting to get rid of his worst starter and one of his worst relievers. However, trading away your franchise closer and your three-hole hitter (while getting no obvious replacements for them) seems to be a huge sign of retreat for the D-backs, and one that will leave a bad taste in the mouth of their fans and players alike.
On the complete opposite end of the spectrum were the San Diego Padres, whose insane hot streak over the past two weeks inspired GM AJ Preller to go on a massive win-now buying spree.
Going into the deadline, the Padres had four main holes to fill: depth in the bullpen, an everyday DH, offensive production from their catchers, and a headline starter for their rotation. As such, Preller began to attack these problems one-by-one. He started on Saturday by picking up Trevor Rosenthal from the Royals, arguably the best reliever available. Next, he presumably found his DH by acquiring Mitch Moreland from the Red Sox. He then grabbed a third catcher from the Angels in the form of Jason Castro, and a fourth from the Mariners in the form of a surging Austin Nola. Sure, the latter would cost him one of their biggest prospects in Taylor Trammell, but the deal also came with additional bullpen help from Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams.
This alone would have made for a great slate of deadline deals. However, the piece de resistance would come on Monday morning, as the Padres secured a victory in the Mike Clevinger sweepstakes through a nine-player deal with Cleveland. In doing so, the Padres finally got the Ace they’ve been needing in their rotation and put a massive exclamation mark on their outstanding deadline. All in all, here is the aftermath of Preller’s weekend (asterisks denote minor-league prospects):
Outgoing:
Josh Naylor
Austin Hedges
Cal Quantrill
Ty France
Andres Munoz
Taylor Trammell*
Luis Torrens*
Gabriel Arias*
Joey Cantillo*
Owen Miller*
Jeisson Rosario*
Hudson Potts*
Edward Olivares*
PTBNL
Incoming:
Mike Clevinger
Austin Nola
Trevor Rosenthal
Mitch Moreland
Austin Adams
Dan Altavilla
Jason Castro
Greg Allen
PTBNL
Perhaps the most notable thing about this trading spree isn’t the amount of players that Preller gave up to get these additional pieces, but rather the players he didn’t give up. Of the group leaving San Diego, the vast majority were minor league players who aren’t major prospects. None of the core pieces on the major league roster were moved except for Hedges, and (with the exception of Trammell) the key pieces of San Diego’s farm system were untouched. As a result, they managed to escape this trade deadline with not only an upgraded version of one of the best lineups in baseball, but also the third-best farm system in the majors.
At the end of the day, the deadline deals of the Padres and D-backs both represent their specific response to the same issue: how do you compete when a team in your division has more money than God and fields an All-Star starting lineup every night? The answer is to build for the long-term. But when it comes to executing that plan, it turns out that while one franchise is farther along than expected, the other is much further off.
In Arizona’s case, while Mike Hazen has done a tremendous job rebuilding one of the worst farm systems in baseball, he is realizing that despite a surprising 2019, his team is not ready for the win-now push just yet. The promising group of prospects that are expected to lead the team into the future (e.g. Daulton Varsho, Andy Young, Alek Thomas, Josh Rojas, Kristian Robinson) are simply not ready to produce at the big league level yet. And even with the breakout of Ketel Marte last season, this is a team that is severely lacking the one or two star players that can put them over the top. So the smart play for Hazen here was to sit back and wait patiently for what comes next.
Meanwhile, the Padres have everything blooming for them right now. After a long and painful rebuilding process, they not only have their young talent coming into their own (Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Jake Cronenworth), but also two bonafide superstars to lead their team forward (Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado). Combine that with their excellent start to the season, and it makes sense why Preller hit the lever to activate win-now mode. Sure, some may argue that this season might not be the right time to pull the trigger, but I would say two things to that argument. First, anytime you have a legitimate shot at a title, you should always capitalize and go after it, especially if you can do it without discounting your future like Preller did here. Secondly, as any GM will tell you, opportunities to get a talent like Clevinger are very rare, and they only come in fleeting windows. If you are able to take advantage of it, a good deal is a good deal regardless of the year.
What will ultimately come of these trades? No one can really say for sure. Frankly, it could still be possible for the Diamondbacks to go on a miracle run and the Padres to go on a historic losing streak. Virtually anything is possible in a 30-game window. But one thing’s for sure: both teams are looking squarely at the future, even if they are taking different paths to get there.