Analysis: Our 2020 MLB Midseason Award Winners
It may be hard to believe, but we are already halfway through the 2020 MLB season. Thirty games have come and gone for each team (with some notable exceptions), and we now have a better grasp of how things are shaking out in this strange year. As such, I wanted to take this time to look back upon the first half of the season and highlight the players who have been dominating these first four weeks. So without further ado, here are my picks for each of the major MLB Awards through the midway point of the season:
Rookie of the Year
This year’s Rookie of the Year race is going to be one of the most difficult to call in recent memory. Not only are we seeing the awaited debuts of multiple top prospects this year, but these prospects also seem to have much bigger roles since rosters are being spread so thin. However, considering that most of these prospects weren’t called up until after the first couple of weeks of the season, finding the best rookie of the first half is a much easier feat.
American League: Kyle Lewis, SEA
Heading into 2020, the AL Rookie of the Year Award was basically Luis Robert’s to lose. But even though Robert has been great (his 1.1 fWAR, 7 home runs, and amazing defense are nothing to sneeze at), it’s almost impossible to say that Lewis hasn’t been better. After earning rave reviews in camp and earning a starting role, he has vindicated the Mariners’ trust by posting a .360/.446/.568 slash line, a wRC+ of 182, and 1.7 fWAR (by far the most among rookies). Now, a lot of this can be chalked up to small sample sizes and a lack of an adjustment period (his high BABIP, for example, indicates that his current performance might be unsustainable). However, I have to appreciate Lewis’s tremendous start, as he has been an exciting presence on the field and a true bright spot for a Mariners team that has not had many of them this year.
National League: Jake Cronenworth, SD
Cronenworth has been a pleasant surprise in a year full of them for San Diego. Sharing an infield with the electric Fernando Tatis and former All-Stars Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, he has held his own and found a way to stick in the Padres lineup. In return, he has given the Padres a .342/.402/.608 slash line and 1.1 fWAR. Oh, and did I mention he can also pitch?
Cy Young
2020 has certainly been a good year for pitchers so far, and as such, there have been quite a few breakout stars who have pitched phenomenally up to this point. To name a few, Randy Dobnak with the Twins, Sonny Gray with the Reds, Lance Lynn with the Rangers, and Yu Darvish with the Cubs. But when it comes down to pure performance, there are two pitchers right now who are head and shoulders above the rest in their respective leagues.
American League: Shane Bieber, CLE
Over the past couple of seasons, Bieber has proven himself to be an All-Star caliber pitcher in an organization full of amazing pitching talent. However, he has taken an extra leap forward in 2020, putting himself in the conversation of best starting pitchers in the game today. Through the first half of the 2020 season, he has put up numbers that have been absolutely mind-blowing, both in the traditional stats (posting a 1.35 ERA while leading the league in innings pitched and strikeouts) and in more advanced metrics (a runaway leader in both FIP and SIERA). As a result, he has produced the most pitcher WAR (2.1 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR) of anyone in the league. And after another great performance on Tuesday, in which he once again posted double-digit strikeouts, he has further cemented his status as the best hurler in the Junior Circuit.
National League: Trevor Bauer, CIN
You can love him. You can hate him. But you cannot deny his absolute dominance in the 2020 season. Despite the fact that he has one fewer start than most pitchers in MLB, Bauer has still consistently been among the league leaders in pitcher WAR. Looking at his Baseball Savant page, it’s not hard to see why: the spin rates on all of his pitches are at the highest levels they have ever been, transforming his stuff from great to nearly unhittable. The result? The second-highest strikeout rate in the league (behind Bieber), the lowest BABIP against (tied with Kenta Maeda), and an insane 0.68 ERA through his first four starts (it’s at 1.65 now). This one is a much closer call than the American League, as Darvish and Gray have both put up phenomenal numbers to this point, but based on who I think has been the best pitcher of the group so far, I have to give it to Bauer right now.
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Most Valuable Player
While one of these picks was considerably easier than the other, both of these players are wholeheartedly deserving of the Midseason MVP Award. Here are my winners and three finalists for each league:
American League
Brandon Lowe, TBR
Shane Bieber, CLE
Anthony Rendon, LAA
While the top three players were easy to pick in the National League, choosing the top three in the American League is pretty difficult for a couple of reasons. The first is the noticeable absence of many usual suspects in this conversation. Among others, Aaron Judge has been hurt, Jose Altuve has been god-awful, and Mike Trout has missed games due to paternity leave (while also being hampered in the WAR department by his defensive metrics). The second thing is that unlike the NL, there are no real standout position players from the pack that have demanded themselves to be a part of the conversation. While Lowe has been great this year, he has done so rather quietly. Part of this obviously has to do with the media’s usual indifference to the Rays, but objectively Lowe isn’t the kind of one-man-wrecking-crew that Tatis or Betts can be. Even Rendon, seemingly the most qualified candidate here, has only amassed his statistical achievements in the last week and half, as he was not great at all to start the year. Other arguments could be made for Kyle Lewis, as well as the ageless Nelson Cruz and a surging Jose Abreu. However, in terms of overall contributions to their team over the first thirty games and how sustainable those contributions seem to be, I don’t feel comfortable putting any of them above Bieber.
Due to his rocky start to the year, I’ve got to put Rendon in third place. And while I have raved about his season to this point, there’s only so much that a pitcher like Bieber can do in 7 starts. Here, I have to give it to Lowe for his consistently excellent bat. Through the entire first half of the year, his slash line has largely hovered around .300/.400/.650, all while he has stayed near the top of the home run leaderboard (he currently has 9 on the year). When you put it all together, he is producing at a rate 83% better than the average hitter at the plate. With hitting stats like that, the fact that he isn’t a defensive liability is merely the icing on the cake. He might not be the flashiest candidate, nor is he the one with the most hype or attention, but overall, Brandon Lowe has been the best player in the American League in the first half.
National League
Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
Mike Yastrzemski, SF
Mookie Betts, LAD
Is there really any doubt about this one? Sure, he might not be topping the WAR leaderboards (Betts has him in bWAR, Yaz beats him in fWAR, Tatis is second in both), but when it comes to overall contributions to the ball club, I don’t think there’s any question that Tatis is the most deserving of winning this award. In addition to being one of the best players in all of baseball, Tatis has truly become the heart and soul of the San Diego Padres. His teammates respond to him, rally around him, and have seemingly embraced him as the unofficial leader of the team. And to be honest, without him, it’s hard to see San Diego as more than a fringe playoff contender.
Now, this is not to discount the contributions of the other two finalists. After being mired in the minors for years, Yastrzemski has been enjoying a late career breakout akin to something from a Disney movie, and he is a large reason why the Giants may still have hope for the 2020 season. Meanwhile, Betts has been playing like the 400-million-dollar former MVP he is, seemingly fitting in nicely with his new surroundings in LA. But at the end of the day, there is no brighter star in baseball than Tatis, and if he does end up winning the real award at the end of the season, I get the feeling that it might be the first of many.