Commentary: Looking Back at Our 2020 Playoff Predictions
If you need a refresher of our preseason predictions, you can click here to read those first.
Let’s be real here, predicting a 60-game season is a fool’s errand to begin with. Sure, the best teams will predictably float to the top, but the sample size is still small enough for there to be outliers aplenty. Of course, that wasn’t going to stop baseball writers from trying to predict the outcome of the season anyway. After all, season predictions were probably one of the only positive things we could write about during this offseason. So today, with less than a week to go in the regular season, I thought I’d take a look back at my predictions from Opening Weekend and see just how bad (or good) of a job I did of looking into the future:
National League
NL West
Predicted: Dodgers, Padres
Current: Dodgers, Padres
Yeah, there’s really not much to be said here. This was by far the easiest division to call, so I can’t even really give myself credit for being correct. “But what about the D-backs?,” you may ask. Well, I’ll get to them later.
NL Central
Predicted: Reds, Cardinals
Current: Cubs, Cardinals
Look, I didn’t expect the Reds to be the greatest team in baseball heading into this season, but I did at least expect them to be better than mediocre. Frankly, that’s all you need to be in order to win this division. Just ask the Cubs, who have beaten their expectations (as well as their shoddy run differential) to put together a pretty nice 60-game record. That being said, I did predict that the Central would come down to the wire, and it has definitely lived up to that billing. With less than a week to go, the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers are all within a game of each other for the second guaranteed spot. Of this group, the Cardinals are going to be the biggest player here, as they still have the most games to play (8, compared to 4 and 6, respectively). In my opinion, they are the team you should be paying the most attention to during the final week.
NL East
Predicted: Braves, Mets
Current: Braves, Marlins(!)
Okay, blame me all you want for showing confidence in the Mets - frankly, I should’ve known better - but do NOT blame me for not picking the Marlins. Let’s be real, anyone who tells you that they had the Marlins making the playoffs before the season started is either a Marlins fan with way too much faith or a big fat liar. That being said, I wouldn’t say Miami is here completely by luck. Yes, they have definitely benefited from the rest of their division being surprisingly weak. But you do have to give some credit to the up-and-coming talent that is keeping their team afloat. Brian Anderson and Miguel Rojas look like they can be leaders on this team for years to come, and Sixto is looking like a young Pedro in more ways than one. Couple this core with a group of promising young prospects like Jazz Chisholm, and it’s looking like Miami might be getting ready to make some noise once again.
NL Wild Card
Predicted: Diamondbacks, Phillies
Current: Reds, Brewers
Remember when the Diamondbacks were supposed to be a good team? It feels like it was so long ago. I guess that’s what being tied for the fourth-worst record in baseball will do to the perception of a team. Some could have predicted a disappointing year for them, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted how bad of a 2020 season they would actually have. In general, this has been my worst set of predictions by far (though, in my defense, I did call predicting these spots “a nearly impossible endeavor”). Sure, the Phillies are still in contention for one of the wild card spots, although they have a much smaller chance now after losing both of their games yesterday. Overalll, I underestimated the Brewers and overestimated basically the entire NL East. But hey, at least the Phillies and Mets can take solace in the fact that they aren’t the Nationals.
American League
AL West
Predicted: Astros, Athletics
Current: Athletics, Astros
In my previous article, I made a lot of predictions, but perhaps none of them aged more poorly than when I said that the Astros winning the West was “written in stone.” To be fair to them, they have bounced back well after a very rough start to 2020 and all but secured another playoff berth. However, the A’s have just been a much better team all the way around, and their division crown isn’t a 2020 fluke. That being said, we all know what they say about Billy Beane’s team in the playoffs. With the first round being only a three-game series this year, I don’t think it’s too crazy to say that Oakland is probably the most likely upset candidate heading into the postseason.
AL Central
Predicted: Twins, Cleveland
Current: White Sox, Twins
Okay, I knew Chicago was going to be good this season, but I certainly wasn’t expecting them to be win-the-division good. With five games to go, they are still in the hunt not just for the first spot in the Central, but the first seed in the American League. This is a team that is leaps and bounds better than their disappointing (but promising) squad from last year. And, from the looks of things, this could be a sign of things to come. Luis Robert is in tow for the foreseeable future, as well as most of their young core. Cleveland is about at the end of its window, and they’re likely going to have to self-destruct in the next few seasons. Kansas City and Detroit are also-rans who are likely going to stay that way for a while. This leaves the Twins as their only real competitors in the division going forward, but even with Nelson Cruz still hitting like a god, the Sox have been the better team for the majority of this year. With that in mind, I think a good Minnesota-Chicago rivalry would be really fun to see over the next few seasons, so I hope the Twins can continue to play at the same level they have been once Cruz eventually moves on.
AL East
Predicted: Yankees, Rays
Current: Rays, Yankees
This was by far a bigger shock than the Athletics winning the West. After all, if there was any sure thing going in the 2020 season, you would think it would be New York. However, the Yankees being the Yankees, they somehow found a way for every single key player to get hurt during the regular season. At one point, they were without Judge, Stanton, Torres, LeMahieu, Paxton, Kahnle, Urshela, Severino, and Chapman - unprecedented levels of loss, even by Yankees standards. That being said, they still managed to scrape by with a AAA roster (and Luke Voit) to make their way into the postseason. The Rays, meanwhile, were the same old Rays - consistently good and consistently overlooked. And they did it while dealing with Yankees-style injury problems of their own, particularly to their vaunted pitching staff. Overall, these are probably the two teams I’m looking forward to seeing the most in October.
AL Wild Card
Predicted: White Sox, Angels
Current: Cleveland, Blue Jays
My predictions here really showcase the duality of man. On one hand, I was right on the money:
“Whoever doesn’t finish second in the Central between Chicago and Cleveland is going to be a pretty good lock for the first Wild Card.”
But then I go completely off the rails…
“Right now, I’m going with the Angels for the second Wild Card spot.”
What on Earth was I thinking? Once again, I fell for the fatal trap. Los Angeles lures you in by having the best player in baseball, another MVP candidate at third base, two of the best defensive infielders in the game, and some of their best prospects ready to make a mark. And what do they do? They proceed to go 7 games under .500 and miss the playoffs again, of course. Perhaps the only thing more predictable than the Dodgers’ continued regular season dominance is the Angels’ continued regular season disappointment. However, for some bizarre reason, I didn’t predict it. This year was going to be different, I told myself. Except it wasn’t. By the way, shout out to the Blue Jays, as they have managed to defy most people’s expectations this year - including my own - and really earned their playoff spot. Now, if only Vlad Jr. can learn how to hit the damn ball in the air…
In Conclusion
Overall, I did better than I thought I would going into this article. I got most of teams right, though the ordering was quite the issue. Naturally, there were some surprises that I don’t think anyone was expecting (looking at you, Miami), but given the circumstances things largely worked out the way you would expect. That being said, if you think the regular season was unpredictable, just wait until the postseason actually starts up.
Normally, this would be the part of the article where I would put my updated playoff predictions. However, with the playoff bracket still working itself out, it’s not really the best time to do that. Instead, we will be posting our 2020 playoff predictions in a separate video Monday on our YouTube channel. Be sure to subscribe here to be one of the first people to watch it when it comes out!