Analysis: The State of the 2020 MVP Race
Earlier this week, I gave my thoughts on the state of the 2020 Cy Young race, giving a brief analysis of the main contenders in each league and where they stand going into the last quarter of the season. Now, it’s time to take a look at our potential MVPs. Heading into the last 10 or so games of the season, here is how the best players in each league are stacking up:
American League
1) Shane Bieber (steady)
Going into the 2020 season, no pitcher has won the MVP award in either league since Clayton Kershaw in 2014. However, that drought might end at the end of this year. As I talked about in my previous piece, Bieber has all but locked up the AL Cy Young. The real question surrounding him now is whether or not he can add the MVP to his trophy case in a year without any standout candidates in the AL. And while some of the usual suspects are making a late-season push, I still have to give the nod to Bieber right now. The man has been flat-out dominant on the mound this entire season, and he has been the most consistently great player in the league. While comparing him to the position players on this list may be a bit like apples and oranges, the 2.7 fWAR he has accumulated is still the most of anyone in the American League. Not only does he deserve to be firmly in the MVP conversation, he deserves to be leading it.
2) Mike Trout (trending up)
They say that the season statistics don’t truly matter until Mike Trout hits the top of the WAR leaderboards. And while he hasn’t made it all the way to the front this year, he has definitely made it to the top tier (he ranks sixth in the majors at the time of writing). Sure, his fielding isn’t nearly as good as it once was, but his hitting is about as good as we’ve ever seen (and in some cases, better than we’ve ever seen). For the fourth straight season, he is on pace for a .300/.400/.600 slash line, and for the first time he has a legitimate chance to lead the league in home runs. Not only that, but his 173 wRC+, .639 SLG, .403 OBP, .424 wOBA, 16 HR, and 94.3 average exit velocity are all firmly in the top five in the American League (3rd, 2nd, 5th, 3rd, t-2nd, and 2nd, respectively). I know it’s crazy to say, but once again, the Best Player in Baseball has somehow gotten even better. If only we had gotten a full season from him...
3) Anthony Rendon (steady)
After a bit of a rough stretch to start out his first season in Anaheim, Rendon has arguably been the best all-around position player in the Junior Circuit. While his slugging percentage and batting average have certainly taken a bit of a hit this year, he has been making up for it by getting on base at an elite level. Going into Wednesday’s games, he is currently walking in 17.2% (!) of his plate appearances, contributing to a career-high .427 OBP. Add to that an above average performance on the field (3.1 DRS) and on the basepaths (0.8 BsR), and Rendon has accumulated the most fWAR (2.4) among AL position players. None of this is necessarily surprising. After all, this is the kind of quiet excellence we’re used to seeing from Rendon. However, what is surprising is that the Angels somehow simultaneously have the two best position players in the AL and the 6th worst winning percentage in baseball.
4) Tim Anderson (trending up)
After a very promising 2019 that put his name on the map, many wondered if Tim Anderson was going to take the next step forward in his career and live up to his superstar potential. He has since responded by improving every single facet of his game. Not only has he almost matched his baserunning run total from last season (1.2 compared to 1.7) and looked better on defense, but he has also made massive strides at the plate. His OBP is up 57 points, his SLG is up 97, and his wOBA is up 67. He has even raised his batting average by 42 points - and that was after winning the batting title last season. As a result, his wRC+ has gone from good (130 in 2019) to amazing (178 in 2020 so far), and he is tied for the most fWAR among AL position players (2.4). Now, I wouldn’t go as far as to say he is above Trout and Rendon just yet, but if he’s able to keep up this level of production, he is going to be one of the most fun players to watch for years to come.
Honorable Mention: Nelson Cruz
Unfortunately, because he is a DH, there is no way that Nelson Cruz will get any serious consideration as a legitimate MVP candidate. And that is a damn shame, because at 40 (!) years old, he has undoubtedly been the best hitter in the American League. As of right now, Cruz is first in the AL in wRC+, SLG, and wOBA. Again, at 40 years old. Currently, he is slashing .323/.413/.646 with 16 HR, good enough for an astounding 178 wRC+. In fact, he has been so good at the plate that even as a DH, he is one of only six players in the AL to reach the 2.0 fWAR mark this season. Now, do I think that he deserves to win the MVP over players like Trout and Bieber? No. But the fact that he will not be a serious part of the MVP discussion - or even have a shot at being a finalist - is an absolute travesty in my eyes.
National League
1) Fernando Tatis Jr. (steady)
For much of the 2020 season, Fernando Tatis has been the frontrunner for NL MVP, a distinction that makes sense given that he has not only been the best all-around player in baseball this year, but also the most electric. While his baseline offensive stats (.287/.376/.594, 156 wRC+) don’t necessarily jump off the page as they did earlier this year, his amazing speed and defense have allowed him to remain atop the MLB fWAR leaderboards, as well as make a multitude of highlight plays. However, among the two frontrunners, I would say that Tatis has a lower chance of winning than Bieber does. The competition he is facing for the title is much fiercer, to the point where even his WAR crown is starting to be challenged. If he is able to end the season on a hot streak, the award is his for the taking. But if he doesn’t, that just may open the door for the others on this list to take it from him.
2) Freddie Freeman (trending up)
When I say “others”, let me be clear: I’m mainly referring to Freddie Freeman. Out of all the great players in the NL, Freeman has emerged as the only legitimate contender to take down Tatis. In fact, he is on the verge of doing something no one else has done in weeks: overtake Tatis in fWAR (Freeman has 2.8, Tatis has 2.9). But perhaps the only thing more surprising than that stat is his offensive production this year. Over the course of the 2020 season, Freeman has not only been the best hitter in the NL, but possibly the best in baseball. Currently, he ranks 1st in the NL in batting average (.352) and 2nd in OBP (.465), SLG (.653), wOBA (.460), and wRC+ (190). And while that is a lot of second place finishes, the only reason he is in second is because of Juan Soto, who has played in almost 20 fewer games than Freeman this year and has only 68% of the plate appearances. If Freeman is able to keep up his recent hot streak through the end of the year, he can make this decision very interesting for the voters.
3) Mookie Betts (steady)
There’s not really much to say here: Mookie has been Mookie. Since coming to LA, Betts has given the Dodgers the kind of performance that one would expect from him. His slash line has been hovering around the .300/.400/.600 mark while putting up 15 home runs and a 161 wRC+, marks good enough for the third-highest fWAR in the National League (2.4). That being said, his offense hasn’t been as good as Freeman’s and his defense hasn’t been nearly as good as Tatis, but he has at least earned the right to be in the same conversation as them.
4) Manny Machado (trending up)
Having the MVP frontrunner hitting ahead of you every night gives you a level of lineup protection that a player can only dream of. And almost no one flourishes in this kind of situation quite like Manny Machado. While I don’t think anyone can argue that he has been as good as Tatis this year, Machade has certainly been able to keep up with him on both offense and defense. They have posted similar slash lines (.311/.375/.579 for Machado, .287/.376/.594 for Tatis), walk rates (10.2%, 10.4%), defensive runs saved (3.2, 4.0), RBI totals (40 apiece), and home runs (13, 15). So while Tatis certainly holds the edge in both wRC+ (148, 156) and fWAR (2.3, 2.9), Machado has definitely been performing at a level befitting his $300 million dollar stature.