Analysis: The State of the 2020 Cy Young Race
With the end of the 2020 season in sight, I think this is a good time to sit back and reflect on where we are right now in terms of the major award races. I’ll talk more about the MVP candidates in a companion piece on Wednesday, but for right now I want to focus on the pitchers who have made the biggest impacts this season. Much like the 2020 season itself, the Cy Young races in both leagues have had an equal share of the usual suspects dominating and the surprise players coming out of the woodwork. So here, I want to take a deep dive into the best candidates from each league, rank their performances, and see how things are shaping up heading into the home stretch:
American League
1) Shane Bieber (steady)
At this point, Shane Bieber has all but etched his name into the AL Cy Young trophy, to the point where more people are speculating about him winning MVP than the Cy Young. His 2.7 fWAR this season is by far the most among pitchers, 0.4 wins above the next closest pitcher and 0.6 wins above the closest contestant in the AL. In addition, he has thrown the second-most pitches this season, currently has the lowest single-season ERA for a starter since Dwight Gooden in 1985, and has recently become the quickest ever to reach 100 strikeouts in a season (he leads by 20 in that metric). With only 2-3 starts left for him this year, it’s hard to see him falling from the top of this list.
2) Dylan Bundy (trending up)
Bundy has definitely been the surprise candidate in the AL, but he has been able to keep up his great performance throughout this season. The traditional stats like him (2.48 ERA, .914 WHIP), advanced metrics do as well (2.0 fWAR, 2.66 FIP), and his walks and homers have been very much under control this year (2.02 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9). Overall, he has been remarkably consistent through the 2020 season and well-deserving of a spot in the final three.
3) Kenta Maeda (steady)
In his first season with the Twins, Kenta Maeda has announced himself as the ace of the Bomba Squad. His .197 BABIP leads the AL, his 2.87 FIP ranks him fifth, and his 1.62 BB/9 is second only to Zack Greinke. He hasn’t been as in-control as Bundy has been this year (the latter holds the edge in HR/9, FIP, and fWAR), but I would say that the race is still close enough for Maeda to leapfrog him in the last couple starts of the season. In a race for second place, he has certainly found himself in a good place.
4) Lucas Giolito (trending down)
Giolito’s no-hitter served to tell us what many already knew: last season was no fluke. It also helped a lot in terms of getting him into the Cy Young conversation, with that game accounting for much of his 2.1 fWAR (good for second in the AL). However, I just can’t put him above Bundy and Maeda on this list. While he does hold the edge in strikeouts (12.23 K/9 vs 10.4 and 10.19), both Bundy and Maeda have an ERA almost a full run lower than Giolito’s 3.43. Bundy outranks him in BB/9, HR/9, and FIP, while Maeda has the edge in BABIP, BB/9, and Ground Ball Rate. So, as good as Giolito is pitching this year, I would say they are having even better years. That being said, being second in both fWAR and strikeouts is certainly not an accomplishment to sneeze at.
National League
1) Jacob DeGrom (trending up)
The two-time defending Cy Young winner was already having a decent 2020 season, but on the strength of his last few starts he has fully become the frontrunner to win his third straight award. The stats speak for themselves: 1.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 13.17 K/9, 0.87 WHIP, and 2.3 fWAR. Not only that, but he is doing this while throwing harder than he ever has before (his average fastball velocity is now up to 98.5 according to Statcast). At this point, there’s not much else that can be said about him that hasn’t already been said. He is a living legend performing at the height of his powers and we are lucky to get to watch him every five days.
2) Yu Darvish (steady)
Darvish has always been a good pitcher, but he has simply been on another level this season. Among his NL contemporaries, he currently ranks in the top five in BB/9, HR/9, ERA, FIP, and FIP, posting the best numbers of his career in those metrics. In fact, he has a chance to eclipse the 2.6 fWAR he accumulated in his 178.2 innings last season in about a third of the time (he currently has 2.2 in 56.0 IP). Do I think he can pull off the upset against DeGrom? No, especially with the way the latter had been throwing lately. But the fact that he’s even made it a close race is a testament to the great season Darvish is having, and both he and the Cubs should be excited about the future.
3) Trevor Bauer (trending down)
At the midway point of the season, Bauer was my pick for the best pitcher of the first half. Now, some rough starts have taken him out of that top spot, but he is still putting together quite the season. He still has an ERA under 2.00 for the year, as well as an elite 12.37 K/9 and 1.9 fWAR. If he finishes strong, I still think he’ll make it as one of the three finalists this year.
4) Corbin Burnes (trending up)
Enter the surprise candidate. In just second season in the majors, Burnes has shown a massive improvement in his pitching performance that has gone largely unrecognized due to how bad his Brewers have been. Sure, he’s pitched fewer innings than the other candidates (only 45.1), but he has still accumulated the same amount of fWAR as Bauer (51.2 IP), Greinke (52.1), and Maeda (55.2). In addition, his 12.71 K/9, 0.20 HR/9, 1.99 ERA, and 2.05 FIP are all at elite levels. At least, he’s certainly come a long way from the -0.3 fWAR he posted in his rookie year. Watch out for him going forward.