Commentary: The Biggest Surprises of the 2020 Season (So Far)
As I write this article, we are now approaching the two week mark of the 2020 MLB season. These are words that I honestly didn’t think I was going to be able to write this year, but here we are in the middle of the weirdest season of all of our lifetimes. And as weird as things have been off the field, things have been nearly as crazy on the field. The Orioles have a winning record, Christian Yelich has been one of the least valuable players in baseball, and the Diamondbacks look like early frontrunners for the Kumar Rocker sweepstakes. So with all this in mind, here are the things that have surprised me the most on the field in the first couple weeks of play:
The Rockies and Cubs Take the League by Storm
Colorado and Chicago are two very similar teams. They both rely on a strong core of 3-4 star players to lead their offensive production, but beyond those guys, their lineups do not seem very deep on paper. Similarly, they don’t have particularly strong rotations and their bullpens are, to put it mildly, pretty shaky. For these reasons, I had both of those teams not making the playoffs in both versions of my preseason predictions (which you can find here and here). However, both of these teams have really shut me up with their play over the first 20% of the season.
The Cubs have done it through an impressive offensive display. They have consistently been among the league leaders in home runs throughout this young season, and they currently rank third in the league in team OPS. This production has helped propel them to the seventh-best run differential in the league, but they have been also aided by strong starting pitching performances by the likes of Jon Lester, Alec Mills, and Tyler Chatwood. Their bullpen has still been quite painful to watch at times (particularly Craig Kimbrel), but with the starters eating so many innings (Kyle Hendricks had another 7+ inning start last night) the pressure on the relievers has been greatly diminished. As a result, they sit at 9-2 with a commanding lead in the unpredictable NL Central.
Meanwhile, pitching has been a lot more of a factor for the Rockies. One would not normally associate Coors Field with effective run prevention, but Colorado’s pitchers have quietly put together a great string of games. Their staff is currently the fifth most valuable in baseball by fWAR, accruing a total of 1.8 Wins Above Replacement. This has been bolstered by great starting performances from German Marquez, Antonio Senzatella, and a resurgent Kyle Freeland. And of course, as long as you can keep your opponents to a reasonable number of runs, it doesn’t take much to win in Coors. In that regard, their offense has worked mainly as usual (with the curious exception of Nolan Arenado), resulting in the third-best run differential in the league and the top spot in the NL West.
Can they keep this hot start going? For both teams, that’s going to be a question best answered by their rotations. If they can continue to get quality starts and minimize their bullpen use, I think they both have the offensive capability of being strong contenders and dangerous opponents in October.
The Snakes Fall Flat on their Face
Earlier last week, I published an article about how the Arizona Diamondbacks had gotten off to the worst start in the major leagues. Unfortunately, things have not gotten any better for them since that article was published. After very nearly getting swept at home by the juggernaut Dodgers, Arizona ran into yet another buzzsaw in the Astros on Tuesday and received yet another lopsided beatdown.
The stats tell a very simple story about why the D-backs are tied for MLB’s worst record: in a game where all you have to do is hit the ball, pitch the ball, and field the ball, Arizona is somehow incapable of doing any of those things. As a team, they are slashing .194/.273./.266 at the plate, and they’ve managed to hit only 2 home runs so far. For context, the Cardinals have 4 more homers, and they haven’t played in over a week. Pitching has been almost as bad of a weak spot, as their staff currently owns the third-highest FIP (5.34), the sixth-highest walk rate, and the most home runs given up (20). And it doesn’t help that they rank 28th in fielding runs this season (-5.4).
What’s less simple to explain is why things are like this. On paper, there is seemingly no way that the D-backs could possibly be this inept. As I mentioned in the article above, they had a newly bolstered rotation with talented young pitchers, a solid core in their lineup that really fell into place last year, a handful of great pickups in the offseason, and one of the best farm systems in baseball. Yet somehow, everything they have tried this year has crashed and burned in spectacular fashion. Thus, in a year full of them, this Arizona team has managed to be one of the biggest surprises of the year -- albeit in the worst way possible.
Two AL Rookies Steal the Show
If there has been one beneficiary of the 2020 season, it has been the rookies and top prospects who have been getting their first major tastes of the big leagues in this weird year. For these players, this is a chance to prove that they belong on a big league roster full-time, and many have been taking full advantage of the opportunity. Nate Pearson was dominant in his long-awaited debut for the Blue Jays, Dustin May has posted a 2.63 FIP for the Dodgers this season, and Jo Adell got a base hit in his first career plate appearance as an Angel. But among all the rookies in the league right now, there are two that have stolen the spotlight more than any other: Kyle Lewis and Luis Robert.
While Mariners fans haven’t had a lot to cheer for in the past few seasons, they have a lot to look forward to in players like Lewis. He has been a surprise breakout so far, currently slashing .375/.423/.583 through the first two weeks after starting his season with a ten-game hit streak. And while those numbers are surely going to dip down in the coming weeks (he’s struck out in nearly 36.5% of his at-bats and has a ludicrous .577 BABIP), the Mariners should be more than happy with the power and hitting potential he’s shown off since he entered Summer Camp this year.
In less surprising news, Luis Robert has been living up to the hype so far in his first season with the White Sox. But what may be surprising is just how much he’s living up that hype. After nearly a fifth of the season, he currently ranks second among all position players in fWAR after a .364/.429/.568 start to the year. This hitting prowess, combined with his elite speed, might put him in the running for not just Rookie of the Year, but potentially some MVP votes if he keeps this up. However, there is still a lot of time for things to change in the next 50 games. Like Lewis, his high BABIP might indicate that he is due for a regression at some point. This is, after all, his first major stint in the big leagues, and he will have to deal with adjustments as pitchers start to figure out his weaknesses. But with that being said, if this is how he introduces himself, I can’t wait to see what he’s going to do for an encore.
Speaking of the White Sox…
Much like Robert, many people expected the White Sox to be good, but they did not expect them to be this good, this quickly. The Sox have shot off to a 7-4 record in their first 11 games of the year, largely on the back of the best offense in MLB. As a team, they currently rank first in batting average (.284), second in OPS (.798), second in wRC+ (130), and first in position player WAR (3.3). This offense has been led by the aforementioned Robert and his fellow young stars Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada, all of whom have an OPS over .950. And as good as they have been, it’s possible that they may get even better down the line. Their key free agent signings, Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion, have both gotten off to slow starts this season at the plate compared to their normal production. If the young guns can keep up their momentum, and those veterans can find their power again, this Chicago offense could go from really good to downright dangerous.
The NL MVP is Really Anyone’s Race
Position player leaderboards are in a strange place right now, particularly for the National League. Among the 30 least valuable players in the MLB (sorted by fWAR) are 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger, 2019 runner-up Christian Yelich, Eduardo Escobar of the D-backs, and Ozzie Albies of the Braves. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s Mike Yastrzemski has been the most valuable player in baseball so far, and other early leaders include Nicholas Castellanos (tied for the league lead in home runs), Trent Grisham with the Padres (fourth in fWAR), and Grisham’s teammate Wil Myers (183 wRC+).
Of course, there are some not-so-surprising faces in the latter group (Fernando Tatis Jr. and a surging Corey Seager come to mind here), but for the most part, the National League in 2020 has been characterized by surprising performances -- both good and bad. Almost nobody could have guessed how hot players like Yaz and Grisham would be to start the year, nor could they have foreseen how awful Yelich and Bellinger would look. We have heard a lot this year about how anything can happen in a sixty-game season, and I think the weird landscape of the National League is perhaps the best example of this in action.
That being said, could we potentially see another Yastrzemski win MVP? Based on how this season has gone, your guess is as good as mine. Putting aside discussions about how this year’s awards might be devalued based on current circumstances, I think it would be cool to see, and it would certainly be a great story for the younger Yaz, who spent seven years in the minors before finally getting a chance on a big-league roster last season. However, as I alluded to earlier, 50 games is still quite a lot of time for things to happen. Yelich or Bellinger might start to find their strides, those with good starts may begin to cool off, or someone else entirely could come out of the woodwork late in the year. At this point, it’s anyone’s race, and that makes it really fun and exciting to watch.
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