Analysis: Forget .400, These Pitchers are On Pace for an Even Crazier Feat
We are about a third of the way through the 2020 MLB season, and the .400 watch is in full effect. At the time I’m writing this, Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies is hitting exactly .500 through his first 17 games, followed closely behind by surprise contender Donovan Solano of the Giants. Naturally, this has placed the magical .400 mark at the center of attention in baseball, and for good reason. Even if it would ultimately come with an asterisk, seeing a season-long .400 hitter would be a once-in-a-lifetime event for any baseball fan, and it would be a historic moment worthy of the attention it will bring.
But if we spend too much time focusing on the hitters, we might miss something special happening on the other side of the baseball.
In the context of a normal year, the single-season ERA record is a mark that seems so unattainable as to not be worth bringing up. The all-time record is an ungodly 0.86, set by Tim Keefe in his rookie season of 1880. But of course, we can’t reasonably compare the pitching of today to the pitching of the late 1800’s and the Dead Ball Era, so we will go by the modern record. This mark belongs to the great Bob Gibson, who posted an equally-insane 1.12 ERA over 304 innings in 1968.
This is certainly an impressive feat, but what makes it so special? After all, posting an ERA under 2.00 isn’t exactly the rarest of feats, particularly in recent years. In fact, it has happened five times in the last decade (DeGrom, Snell, Greinke, and Kershaw twice). But even with all of the amazing pitching seasons that have been posted in the modern era of baseball, none of them have come within an arm’s length of reaching Gibson’s mark. It’s not just that he has the record, it’s that he is the only pitcher in the modern era to post an ERA under 1.20, 1.30, 1.40, AND 1.50. The closest anyone has ever come to him was Dwight Gooden in 1985, who posted a 1.53 in his second season (some could consider this to be the true modern record, as it came after the mounds were lowered in 1969).
Thus, if we were looking at a 162-game schedule, the odds of anyone having a shot at the record would be less than zero. But because 2020 is what it is, the floodgate of possibility is now more open than ever.
Currently, there are four pitchers on pace to have a shot at 1.12: Randy Dobnak (0.90), Trevor Bauer (0.93), Jon Lester (1.06), and Lance Lynn (1.16). You could also consider Zach Plesac (1.29), but given his recent violation of MLB’s COVID-19 protocols, I don’t expect him to get back on the mound anytime soon.
Seeing Bauer and Dobnak at the top of the leaderboards is certainly an interesting pairing, and one that has a similar dynamic to that of Blackmon and Solano. Bauer is a former star at UCLA, a number-three pick in the draft, a 2018 All-Star, and one of the most fiercely analytical pitchers in the major leagues. Meanwhile, Dobnak is a journeyman Division II product who was discovered by the Twins via YouTube and is mainly known for the fact that he used to drive for Uber. Yet, a third of the way through the season, they both find themselves locked in the same potential race for history.
So what would it take for this to actually happen?
Well, in a sixty-game season, we can reasonably assume that each starting pitcher will get around twelve starts this year. Considering how good they would be pitching, it’s likely that they will go deep into each game, so let’s say they average about seven innings in each start. That brings us to a total of 84 innings for the entire season, but let’s round this down to 81 to make the math a little bit easier.
To figure out the limit of earned runs allowed, we would just need to do some very basic algebra. The traditional formula for ERA is shown below.
ERA = 9 * Earned Runs/Innings Pitched
Because our theoretical pitcher is throwing exactly 81 innings, we can simplify this even further so that ERA = Earned Runs/9. This means that we can find our earned run limit by simply multiplying our target ERA by 9. Thus, in order to have an ERA below 2.00 over 81 innings, the pitcher would have to give up fewer than 18 runs - which comes out to an average of 1.5 per start.
Taking the next step down, if our pitcher is looking to beat Gooden’s mark of 1.53 (and possibly break 1.50), they would have to cut another five runs, only allowing 13 runs or less. Finally, if we want to reach the mythical 1.12, our magic number over 81 innings shifts to 10.107.
Ten runs. If someone can give up just 10 earned runs or less over the course of this season, they can claim the modern record. Of course, this algebra is going to shift based on how many innings he actually pitches, but this should serve as a decent guideline. Essentially, they only have one run of breathing room in every game they pitch. And if they do give up that run, they’ll need to go deep in the game to counteract it.
Is a run of this magnitude probable? Likely not, but it is feasible -- and it has precedent. After all, long-term scoreless streaks have happened before. Orel Hershiser set the record with 59 consecutive scoreless innings in 1988, Kershaw and Greinke had streaks of 40+ innings in the last decade, and, of course, Gibson had 47 consecutive innings during his 1.12 season.
But of course, the fact that you would need a once-in-a-career scoreless streak to even have a chance emphasizes just how many things have to go right for this to even be possible. After all, baseball is a game of luck. If you’re not getting lucky, you’re getting screwed -- and everyone’s luck runs out eventually.
If anything, this just recontextualizes how utterly insane the performances of Gooden and Gibson truly were. Even in a sixty-game, short-sample season, you would need to basically sell your soul to the devil to get the luck necessary to have a shot. Yet, these guys were able to sustain this level of dominance for around 300 consecutive innings of work. Personally, I don’t think they get enough credit for their accomplishments, especially Gooden. I hope that this chase will give us an opportunity to reflect on how amazing both of them were. Now, as for our contestants in this chase, I can only wish them good luck -- they’re going to need it.
May the odds be ever in their favor.