Analysis: Cedric the Entertainer
At the one month mark of the 2021 MLB season, the WAR leaderboards look about as you would expect. In their own tier, far above the rest of the league, are Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., sitting at 1.9, 1.8, and 1.7 fWAR, respectively. Just behind them is a sizable group of players that range from 1.1-1.3 fWAR, which includes plenty of the usual suspects. Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant are here, as well as Nick Castellanos, JD Martinez, and a pair of rookie sensations in Yermin Mercedes and Jazz Chisholm. However, there is also another name among this group, one that you wouldn’t expect to see here and one that most people have likely never heard of: Cedric Mullins II.
At first glance, nothing about Mullins seems all that remarkable. Standing at just 5’8” and weighing in at 175 pounds, he doesn’t have the imposing figure of a Judge or a Stanton. Similarly, as a middle-round draft pick who peaked as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization, he doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of Harper or Bryant. But despite this, he has statistically been as good as - or better than - almost every player I have mentioned thus far in 2021, and he is showing no signs of slowing down just yet. So, as the amazing folks at Cespedes Family BBQ suggest, perhaps it’s time for all of us to learn a little bit more about Baltimore’s budding star.
Growing up, Mullins always had talent, but seemingly never enough to become a top prospect. As such, he had a bit of a winding path to the Majors. Upon his graduation from Brookwood High School (where he would play with future first-round pick Lucas Sims), Mullins found himself undrafted with no Division I offers. However, he was able to make the team at Louisburg college, a two-year school that had produced a few big-league talents in the past. While there, he impressed enough to earn a DI offer from Campbell University (go Fighting Camels!), and he would finish out his career at Jim and Gaylord Perry’s alma mater.
The Orioles selected Mullins in the 13th round of the 2015 draft, and while he may not have entered the organization with much fanfare, he would quickly rise through the minor league ranks. He spent his first half-season in low-A, the next year in high-A, and was then promoted to AA at the start of the 2017 season. Along the way, he would show flashes of brilliance in different aspects of the game. For example, he would steal 30 bases in his first full season as a pro, show off an exceptional glove in the outfield, and maintain an OPS of around .800 in the minors - even as he continued to move up to higher levels. By 2018, he was one of the top 10 prospects in the Orioles organization, and he proved that he earned that status by posting a career-high OPS across AA and AAA and winning Baltimore’s Minor League Player of the Year award in the process. As a result of this growth (and a big-league roster with no real talent), Mullins would be called up to the Orioles that August.
Unfortunately, to say that his first forays into MLB could have gone better is an understatement. While he did post a 3-for-4 day in his debut against the Red Sox, his first two cups of coffee would be more bitter than sweet. His 45 games in 2018 were about what you would expect from a mid-level prospect making his debut, posting an 86 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR. It wasn’t great, but it was good enough to earn an Opening Day roster spot in 2019. From there, however, Mullins’ dream of being a big leaguer would quickly develop into a full-blown nightmare. His 2019 MLB stint would last just 22 games - 22 games that could generously be labeled as “unfortunate.” Just how unfortunate? Well, in that time, he would post a slash line of .094/.181/.156, an offensive performance that earned him a wRC+ of -10. Yes, you read that right: Mullins hit at a level that was 110% worse than the average hitter. Needless to say, he would not see the majors again that season.
But here’s the thing about playing for a team like the Orioles: when there is almost no talent on the big league roster, there is almost always room for another chance. And with Baltimore needing to expand their rosters ahead of the shortened 2020 season, Mullins would get that chance. Luckily for him, his 2020 would be more of an improvement from his 2018 than an extension of his 2019. In 48 games and just over 150 plate appearances, he was basically an average hitter last season, posting a slash line of .271/.315/.407 and a 97 wRC+. That - along with his above-average speed and glove (which we’ll talk about soon) - was good enough to make him worth 0.6 fWAR in 2020.
However, even with the promise he showed last season, almost nothing could have prepared us for his incredible start to 2021. In just 23 games, he has already doubled his fWAR total from 2020 and put himself in the vicinity of some of the game’s best players. So what is to blame for his sudden rise to the top?
In a word: hitting. During the first month of 2021, Mullins has gone from being barely average at the plate to being well above average. At the time of writing, he is currently rocking a .340/.392/.532 slashline, a .396 wOBA, and a 163 wRC+, a massive shift from his 2020 numbers. And when you consider his other skills on the field, it makes sense why metrics like WAR seem to really like him this year.
Previously, his bat had actually been the worst part of his game at the major league level. I don’t say this to disparage his hitting ability (hitting at an average level in MLB is nothing to sneeze at), but rather to point out how good he has been on the bases and in the field. In 2020, Statcast had Mullins ranked in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average, and it looks like that trend is continuing into 2021 as well (he is currently in the 87th percentile this year). Additionally, according to FanGraphs, he created 2.8 runs for the Orioles with his baserunning in 2020, which was good enough for 10th in baseball among players with at least 150 PAs. Both of these measurements have a lot to do with his impressive speed, which Statcast has ranked in the 84th percentile of players. In other words, he already brought a lot of positive value to his team in that the center fielder was able to play a difficult position very well and create opportunities on the basepaths. However, now that his bat has seemingly caught up with his other skills (and considering that offensive production brings the most value to a team), his value has skyrocketed in 2021.
But with that being said, as with all hot streaks, there is a good amount of reason for skepticism. For one thing, Mullins has had a high BABIP to start the season (.408 at the time of writing), and that kind of luck doesn’t tend to extend through September. Additionally, according to Statcast, his exit velocities are about average at best (45th percentile average EV, 48th percentile max EV in 2021), which typically doesn’t bode well for long-term success. Finally, his expected batting average and slugging percentage both suggest that he is benefitting from significant batted ball luck. However, even with those things being noted, there are still some signs here that his breakout could be for real (or, at least, that his hitting has shown great improvement from last season).
At a time where strikeouts are on the rise more than ever in MLB, Mullins has kept a surprisingly tight leash on his strikeout rate. Not only is his mark of 20.4% better than the average major leaguer (66th percentile to be exact), but it is down nearly four percentage points from his 2020 strikeout rate. Not only that, but he has shown a much better ability to control the strike zone and make contact with his swings in 2021. After posting a chase rate in the 22nd percentile in 2020 (swinging at 33% of pitches outside of the zone), he has lowered his chase rate by nearly six percentage points in 2021, now putting him in the 59th percentile of hitters. Similarly, his already good whiff rate improved from being in the 73rd percentile in 2020 to being in the 85th percentile in 2021. Perhaps most importantly though, while his expected batting average and slugging percentage are below his current numbers in those categories and suggest a regression is on the horizon, they still show a dramatic improvement in his hitting ability. Right now, Statcast’s metrics show that he should be hitting .286 with a .466 expected slugging percentage based on his batted balls in 2021. If this continues, this would be a dramatic improvement from his expected stats in 2020, which had him at .214 and .297 based on his batted ball profile from last season. In other words, we shouldn’t expect him to continue hitting over .340 the rest of the year. However, if he is able to keep up his plate discipline and continue hitting the ball the way he has been throughout 2021, not only will he show a huge improvement from his first few stints in MLB, but he will also put himself in a position to become an above-average hitter for years to come.
Which brings me to the final point I want to make about Mullins, and the reason why I feel very optimistic about his future: even after the long and winding road he traveled just to get to this point, Cedric Mullins is still just 26 years old. And for as young as he is, he already has all the tools necessary to be a star: tremendous speed, an exceptional glove at a premier position, and now a seemingly above-average bat. It may be easy to dismiss his early numbers as a small-sample-size mirage, but to my eyes it seems more likely that this is the start of a young player putting it all together at the big league level. While I don’t expect him to continue competing for the batting title or maintain a 160 wRC+ all season, this is the kind of confidence-boosting stretch that a player like Mullins needs to unlock their true potential. And based on the metrics, it certainly seems like there is plenty of potential behind his hot start to 2021.
With any luck, I have a feeling we’re going to hear more about him sooner rather than later.